UFC 274 Parlay Odds & Picks: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje (2022)
The UFC heads back to Arizona this weekend for the first time this year, as UFC 274 brings us one of the best cards in recent memory. Headlined by two title fights in the co-main and main events, there’s a host of other great fights on the main card.
Let’s take a closer look at the top of the evening and see where the value remains in this two-legged parlay.
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Leg #1. Rose Namajunas (-210 at DK Sportsbook)
A rematch of the fight that brought both of these women into the UFC (TUF Finale in 2014) is on deck for the co-main event, as Rose Namajunas defends her strawweight belt over Carla Esparza. For Esparza, Saturday will mark her first shot at the belt since holding it as the first-ever strawweight champion after beating Namajunas the first time.
The only opponent outside of Karolina Kowalkiewicz that Namajunas hasn’t beaten, the champion enters this fight with a big in significant strikes landed per minute 4.01 and takedown accuracy. I like the champ to keep her belt decisively, potentially advancing to the #2 pound-for-pound fighter in the women’s ranks.
Leg #2. Justin Gaethje (+150 at DK Sportsbook)
There are few fights I’ve looked forward to in recent memory like this lightweight bout between two absolute gladiators. For Gaethje, an October 2020 loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov was one he was clearly outmatched in. Still, the more time has gone on, the more I’ve discounted fights in Abu Dhabi as the disruption of routine for these fighters is hard to account for. Since then, Gathje has got back on track in a win against Michael Chandler, a three-round battle (decision win) that won him Fight of the Night honors.
For the champ Oliveira, Chandler is also on his recent hit list, defeating him via TKO almost a year ago to the day for the vacant lightweight title he now holds. Since then, he also finished Dustin Porier inside the distance, a third-round submission that extended his record for the most submission wins (15) and finishes (18) in UFC history.
A former Division I wrestler, Gaethje has yet to put his ground game to the test, often choosing to stand and strike with his opponents. In this fight, however, the question is will Oliveira for that, as the 3rd-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, hold a massive advantage in that department with a takedown average of 2.5 and a submission average of 2.79 per 15 minutes in the octagon.
If his fight against Poirier is any indication, who is also a striker, he just might. Oliveira threw more strikes (157) than he ever has in his career, showing a willingness to stand and throw early on. If he chooses that route vs. Gaethje, he can expect real trouble.
I have this fight much closer to even on paper, and I think we see Gaethje leave the octagon with the belt around his waist once and for all.
Total Odds: +269 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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