UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka Odds, Breakdown & Picks (2022)
This Saturday night’s UFC PPV offering features two title fights, all happening in Singapore. Valentina Shevchenko looks to continue her title reign, while Glover Teixeira will have to defend his belt from a dangerous prospect in Jiri Prozachka. I am looking to take advantage of a few spots I see in the betting market this weekend.
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Jiri Prozachka vs. Glover Teixeira Fight Does NOT Start Round 3 (-138)
I was pleasantly surprised to see such a good line for this fight not to get into round three. I like this bet mainly because of the stylistic clash between these two fighters. Jiri Prozachka is a power puncher that is extremely dangerous early in fights. Twenty-five of his 28 career wins have come by knockout, with all but two coming inside the first two rounds. In fact, only three of his 31 career fights have reached round three.
On the flip side, Glover Teixeira has 28 of his 33 wins coming inside the distance, and that typically involves him taking his opponents down and breaking them on the mat. At nearly 43 years old, this title run has been nothing short of spectacular for Teixeira, but there have been some sketchy moments along the way. His durability is a glaring concern in this matchup, as he has been knocked out three times in his career and repeatedly hurt in multiple fights along with his current win streak.
Prozachka will come out hot and heavy and try to hurt Teixeira early in this fight. If he cannot do that, then Teixeira will take him down and smother him. On the mat, it is clear that Teixeira will have a significant advantage in the grappling, which has been unproven at the UFC level for Prozachka and sometimes lacking on the regional scene. Because of the clear advantages for both fighters depending on how this fight plays out, I see it ending within the first two rounds at a high clip.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk ML (+140)
Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk put on one of the most exciting fights in UFC history when they squared off in early 2020 at UFC 248. The fight played out very competitively, with Weili winning via a split decision.
There were a combined 768 strikes thrown between them, which was an insane pace for a five-round fight with neither fighter willing to give an inch. Jedrzejczyk out-landed Weili slightly on the numbers, but it appeared that Weili held the power advantage and landed the more impactful strikes. Some wonder if the massive hematoma on Jedrzejczyk’s forehead played a role in the judges’ decision.
The biggest difference in this fight from the first one is that it will only be three rounds instead of five. Many would assume this favors Weili as Jedrzejczyk has great cardio but had the first fight only been three rounds, it would have been Jedrzejczyk who got her hand raised on the judges’ scorecards. Similar to the first fight, I expect Jedrzejczyk to have the speed and volume advantage, and avoiding as many big power shots from Weili will be vital in getting her hand raised this time around.
Ultimately, I expect another razor-close fight with both fighters making a case to win rounds. But I cap Jedrzejczyk as a slight favor at 55%, so it makes sense to take the (+140) bet as that implies that she wins only around 41% of the time. May the judges ever be in your favor.
For a full betting and DraftKings breakdown, check out my website fightnumbers.com where I offer multiple free tools and resources for bettors and MMA DFS players.
Bet $5, Win $150 + Any Additional Winnings on Any UFC 275 Fight >>
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