UFC 275: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Taila Santos Betting Guide (2022)
The UFC hits the road this weekend and heads to Singapore, where two belts will be on the line. The main event features a Light Heavyweight Championship bout between champion Glover Teixeira and #2-ranked contender Jiri Prochazka. This article will focus on the co-main event, a five-round title fight between Valentina Shevchenko (C) and Taila Santos (#4). Shevchenko puts her Women’s Flyweight strap on the line for the seventh time on Saturday, and she’s proven to be a problem at the top of the division for four straight years.
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Betting Profile: Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0)
Last Five Fights (WWWWW)
Shevchenko first claimed the Women’s Flyweight belt back in December of 2018 in a unanimous decision over Joanna Jedrzezyk. Dana White and the UFC have sent the very best of the division at her, but Valentina “Bullet†Shevchenko has yet to slip up. She’s 6-0 in title defenses, most recently retaining the belt against Lauren Murphy in September of last year. It was a fourth round TKO for Shevchenko in a fight where she outstruck her opponent 98-11 over 3+ rounds. Pure domination.
The southpaw has roots in Taekwondo and Judo but is officially listed as a Muay Thai Kickboxer. Honestly, there isn’t much that Shevchenko can’t do. She possesses a great mix of power and accuracy, and her takedown ability is amongst the best in the world. Bullet is landing 2.62 takedowns per 15 minutes and doing so at a 64% clip. Being that she’s often the aggressor in the fight, she hasn’t taken much damage in her UFC career. Shevchenko is absorbing just 1.87 significant strikes per minute while dealing out 3.21. Valentina’s a massive -720 favorite (via DraftKings), and I’m not sure if anyone is capable of stopping her reign of terror in the Women’s Flyweight division.
Betting Profile: Taila Santos (19-1-0)
Last Five Fights (WWWWL)
Santos is riding a four-fight win streak entering this weekend’s championship bout. Most recently, it was a brief display of her power against Joanne Wood back in November of 2021. Santos dropped Woods twice in the first round and slipped in a rear naked choke to finish the fight with 11 seconds on the clock in the first. It was a fantastic display of power that proved she’s ready for a title shot. The other wins for the Brazilian on her four-fight win streak include three unanimous decision victories over Roxanne Modafferi, Gillian Robertson, and Molly McCann.
The game plan is pretty straightforward for Taila Santos, a blue belt in BJJ. She’s going to hit you in the mouth, take you down, and look for a submission. She’s landing 3.71 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 2.23. Santos is landing 2.44 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 86% clip, while her takedown defense is at 88% entering this weekend’s championship fight.
Bottom Line
Both Shevchenko and Santos boast fight-stopping power, exemplified by their recent fight logs. For that reason, I’m taking the under on 3.5 rounds in this fight.
In my opinion, the only chance for Taila Santos to win this fight is by finishing it prior to the final bell. She will not want to leave this one up to the judges. While she’s a massive underdog, and rightfully so, Santos possesses a powerful right hand that can stun any opponent. If she’s able to wobble Shevchenko and take her down, she may be able to slip in a submission and claim the belt.
On the flip side, Shevchenko has proven to be the most polished fighter in women’s MMA. She’s the current pound-for-pound champ, and she’s well deserving of that honor. I expect Santos to pressure her, which will likely force Shevchenko to react rather than act on her own terms. That won’t be a problem for the champ, as she’s proven the capability to adapt and finish fights early. Whatever way this fight plays out, I like the under on 3.5 rounds to cash.
Pick: Under 3.5 Rounds
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