UFC 275: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Taila Santos Odds, Preview, Picks, Prop Bets (2022)
The UFC hits the road this weekend and heads to Singapore, where two belts will be on the line. The main event features a Light Heavyweight Championship bout between champion Glover Teixeira and #2-ranked contender Jiri Prochazka. This article will focus on the co-main event, a five-round title fight between Valentina Shevchenko (C) and Taila Santos (#4). Shevchenko puts her Women’s Flyweight strap on the line for the seventh time on Saturday, and she’s proven to be a problem at the top of the division for four straight years.
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Betting Profile: Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0)
Last Five Fights (WWWWW)
Shevchenko first claimed the Women’s Flyweight belt back in December of 2018 in a unanimous decision over Joanna Jedrzezyk. Dana White and the UFC have sent the very best of the division at her, but Valentina “Bullet†Shevchenko has yet to slip up. She’s 6-0 in title defenses, most recently retaining the belt against Lauren Murphy in September of last year. It was a fourth round TKO for Shevchenko in a fight where she outstruck her opponent 98-11 over 3+ rounds. Pure domination.
The southpaw has roots in Taekwondo and Judo but is officially listed as a Muay Thai Kickboxer. Honestly, there isn’t much that Shevchenko can’t do. She possesses a great mix of power and accuracy, and her takedown ability is amongst the best in the world. Bullet is landing 2.62 takedowns per 15 minutes and doing so at a 64% clip. Being that she’s often the aggressor in the fight, she hasn’t taken much damage in her UFC career. Shevchenko is absorbing just 1.87 significant strikes per minute while dealing out 3.21. Valentina’s a massive -720 favorite (via DraftKings), and I’m not sure if anyone is capable of stopping her reign of terror in the Women’s Flyweight division.
Betting Profile: Taila Santos (19-1-0)
Last Five Fights (WWWWL)
Santos is riding a four-fight win streak entering this weekend’s championship bout. Most recently, it was a brief display of her power against Joanne Wood back in November of 2021. Santos dropped Woods twice in the first round and slipped in a rear naked choke to finish the fight with 11 seconds on the clock in the first. It was a fantastic display of power that proved she’s ready for a title shot. The other wins for the Brazilian on her four-fight win streak include three unanimous decision victories over Roxanne Modafferi, Gillian Robertson, and Molly McCann.
The game plan is pretty straightforward for Taila Santos, a blue belt in BJJ. She’s going to hit you in the mouth, take you down, and look for a submission. She’s landing 3.71 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 2.23. Santos is landing 2.44 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 86% clip, while her takedown defense is at 88% entering this weekend’s championship fight.
Top Prop Bet
Valentina Shevchenko to Win Via Decision (+100)
Valentina Shevchenko is a massive favorite to defend her belt against challenger Taila Santos as she currently sits as a -630 betting favorite. While these odds are not something you can touch, it is a fair line as Shevchenko has been untouchable for years.
Holding this title since the end of 2018, Shevchenko has successfully defended her belt in six straight fights. Outside her two losses to Amanda Nunes, who is heralded as the best women’s champion of all time, Shevchenko has never lost since coming into the UFC (11-0).
Shevchenko can beat you in any method as she has won via knockout, submission, and decision, all within her last eight fights. Meanwhile, challenger Taila Santos will look to break this historic streak.
Since fighting in the Dana White Contender Series in 2018, Santos has been extremely impressive as she has produced a 5-1 record in the UFC. Her lone loss was to Mara Romero Borella via a split decision in 2019, so Santos has never been finished in the UFC.
Santos has beaten some good fighters in a short span as she has wins over Gillian Robertson and Joanne Wood, earning her a shot at dethroning Shevchenko. That being said, Santos’ inexperience relative to Shevchenko will most likely be her undoing in this bout.
If Shevchenko sticks to her game, she should be able to control the pace of the fight. In doing so, she should be able to move Santos around the octagon at will and make this fight go into the deeper rounds as Santos will look to avoid her massive power.
Best of luck!
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