UFC 275: Zhang Weili vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk Betting Guide (2022)
The UFC heads abroad this weekend and stops in Singapore, where we have two championship belts on the line. Just before the main and co-main events for UFC 275, we have a Women’s Strawweight rematch between Zhang Weili (No. 2) and Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
At the time of the first fight in March of 2020, Weili was in her first defense of her Strawweight Championship and won via split decision over Jedrzejczyk. Weili comes in as a slight -170 favorite (via DraftKings) as both fighters try to climb the rankings for another shot at the title.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Profile: Zhang Weili (21-3-0)
Last Five Fights (L-L-W-W-W)
Weili will break her streak of four straight title fights when she steps into the octagon this weekend. The Chinese-born brawler claimed the top Strawweight title when she won the belt against Jessica Andrade back in August of 2019. Weili successfully defended the title in a split decision against Jedrzejczyk and lost two straight championship bouts to Rose Namajunas, most recently in November 2021. Weili was knocked out from a kick to the head in the first fight and lost via split decision in the rematch to “Thug Rose.â€
Weili is a very well-rounded fighter and ranks as a purple belt in BJJ. Weili has an arsenal of ways to win fights, and she’s proven the capability of ending fights via knockout and submission. She’s averaging 5.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.13. Weili enjoys taking the fight to the canvas, averaging 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, she has a success rate of just 31% on takedown attempts.
Betting Profile: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0)
Last Five Fights (L-W-L-W-L-L)
34-year-old Jedrzejczyk will look to get her revenge against Weili this weekend in Singapore. The Polish native hasn’t fought since her split decision loss to Weili, so this will be her first return to the canvas since March 2020. She’s alternated wins and losses over her previous five fights, beating Michelle Waterson and Tecia Torres.
11 out of Jedrzejczyk’s 13 fights in the octagon have gone the distance, and she’s known for an intense striking output when she steps into the cage. She’s recorded two straight fights with 180+ strikes, and during her championship run, Jedrzejczyk had four consecutive bouts with 170+ strikes. She enters this weekend’s matchup with an average of 6.30 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.08. Jedrzejczyk is fighting out of Olsztyn, Poland, and has a blue belt in BJJ to her name.
Bottom Line
While there may be a takedown or two mixed in, I’m expecting this fight to stay on the feet for the most part. If that holds, I feel good about taking a shot with the underdog, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, on the money line at +150 (via DraftKings). Her volume is second-to-none, averaging 6.30 significant strikes per minute. That combined with the fact that Weili is absorbing 4.13 strikes per minute, Jedrzejczyk has the opportunity to cause some damage over 25 minutes.
Jedrzejczyk has a 2†edge in both height and reach, so I think that plays well for her in this fight. We may be in for another judge’s decision at the end of the night, and I’ll take my chances with the underdog in this one.
Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk ML (+150 via DraftKings)
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