UFC 276 Betting Guide: Fight Previews, Parlay, Prop Bets, Odds & Picks (2022)
Let’s take a look at our betting guide, fight previews, parlays and prop bets for UFC 276.
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Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier Preview
Betting Profile: Israel Adesanya (22-1-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-L-W-W)
Since claiming the middleweight belt in April 2019 with a win over Kelvin Gastelum, Adesanya has five straight defenses, with his most recent coming over Robert Whittaker (unanimous decision) at UFC 271 in February. Now having beat Whittaker twice, The #3 pound-for-pound fighter on the planet will take on the #2 contender in the division as he quickly runs out of opponents.
Entering this fight, Adesanya holds a slight edge in striking volume at 3.84 significant strikes landed per minute (3.84), as well as takedown defense at 77% vs. 65%.
Betting Profile: Jared Cannonier (15-5-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-L-W-W)
As for the challenger, since joining the UFC in 2015 at heavyweight before a quick move to light heavyweight, Cannonier has found his home in the middleweight division, making the jump in 2019 with a TKO win over Anderson Silva. Since then, Cannonier has gone 3-1, with two of his wins coming via TKO/KO, most recently vs. Derek Brunson (KO) at UFC 271 in February as well.
When the purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu enters the octagon on Saturday, he’ll be doing so with a slight edge on the ground, as 13% of his wins have come via submission (vs. 0), and his takedown average is .23 per 15 minutes (vs. 0).
Bottom Line
Despite his ability to potentially take this one to the ground with some success, I expect Cannonier to engage in the striking that Adesanya, given his length advantage, will surely try to deploy. Since turning middleweight, Whittaker has been the only fighter to give Cannonier fits, a fighter that Adesanya has not just beaten twice but done so largely in a punishing fashion.
For Cannonier, at 38 years old, this is all but certainly, his last shot at a title, making him as dangerous a threat as Adesanya has seen at middleweight since Marvin Vettori in June 2021. Because of that and the power that Cannonier does possess should he connect, I expect a slow and methodical approach from Izzy that allows this fight to bleed in the later rounds.
While I think we see Adesanya’s level completely separate as this fight goes on, I don’t see a finish and like for the champ to retain his title by decision.
Best Bet: Israel Adesanya To Win By Decision +120
Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O'Malley Preview
Betting Profile: Pedro Munhoz (19-7-0, 1NC)
Last Five Fights (L-L-W-L-L)
The Young Punisher hasn't found much success over the last three years, but in his defense, he's competed against some of the best the division offers. Munhoz has four losses over his last five fights. All decision defeats to the following: Aljamain Sterling (U-DEC), Frankie Edgar (S-DEC), Jose Aldo (U-DEC), and Dominick Cruz (U-DEC). Cruz bested Munhoz back in December of 2021 in a bout where the Brazilian-native was outstruck 103-74 and lost the takedown battle 1-0. Cruz was the overall better fighter, although Munhoz had a few shining moments early in the fight. He stunned Cruz with a left hook and knocked him down but was unable to finish him off in the first.
The ninth-ranked bantamweight prefers to stand and bang rather than try and get the fight to the canvas. Munhoz comes in landing 5.50 significant strikes per minute while absorbing an astonishing 6.09 strikes per minute. While he would rather keep the fight upright, it's worth noting that The Young Punisher has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a brown belt in Judo. He's a well-rounded brawler who can grapple with the best of them. Munhoz has three submissions in his UFC career, all coming via the guillotine choke.
Betting Profile: Sean O'Malley (15-1-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-L-W)
Sugar Sean has been perfect throughout his career aside from a TKO at the hands (or elbows rather) of Marlon "Chito" Vera. Vera landed a leg kick in the first round that compromised O'Malley's leg, and he was never able to recover and make it through the round. Vera finished him by raining down a couple of elbows in the first round. The Suga Show bounced back over his next pair of fights, collecting knockout finishes over Kris Moutinho and Raulian Paiva, most recently. O'Malley outstruck Paiva 39-11 and finished him in the first round with a combination of powerful punches.
That's the recipe for O'Malley. He wants to keep the fight upright and pick you apart on the feet. The 27-year-old American comes into this fight landing an insane 8.26 significant strikes per minute at a 62 percent clip while absorbing just 3.52. He's not very active when it comes to takedowns, averaging just 0.59 successful takedowns per 15 minutes.
Bottom Line
Due to Munhoz' recent history, he has transitioned into the "gatekeeper" role, which means he'll be tasked with taking on the rising talent of the division. His first test in this role will be going to battle with a budding star in Sean O'Malley. The American comes in as a pretty sizable favorite, with the cheapest price being -300 at Caesars Sportsbook. In my opinion, this line is inflated strictly due to the hype surrounding Sugar Sean. Obviously, he's a stud, and I won't be surprised at all if he gets his hand raised, but Pedro Munhoz (+240) is no slouch either. He's gone through the gauntlet of the division and proven he's worthy of fighting the very best in the bantamweight class.
While I'm not 100% sure who wins this bout, I'm fairly confident that it doesn't make it to the judges' scorecards. I think we're in for a finish at some point, so I'll lock in the under on 2.5 rounds (-110 via Caesars). O'Malley packs some of the heaviest hands in the division, and his discipline to wait for his shot is unparalleled. All six of his last six fights have ended before the bell, with O'Malley being on the right side of the knockouts in five of those. The fact that Munhoz is absorbing 6.09 significant strikes per minute should worry him and his camp. He's gotten his chin tested plenty of times over his career, but the Suga Show's power is on a different level. On the flip side, we saw that Munhoz also has speed and power. He was close to finishing Dominick Cruz in his last fight, and if he catches O'Malley at the right time, Munhoz can easily add another finish to his resume. Take the under on 2.5 rounds in this bantamweight fight.
Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Robbie Lawler vs. Bryan Barberena Preview
Betting Profile: Robbie Lawler (29-15-0, 1NC)
Last Five Fights (WLLLL)
Ruthless Robbie Lawler makes the UFC walk for the 36th time on Saturday night and is looking to string together a winning streak. Lawler is coming off of a technical knockout victory over Nick Diaz in a rematch that was 17 years in the making.
The now 40-year-old Lawler outstruck Diaz 150-131 and finished him 44 seconds in the third round with a right hook that looked like it broke Diaz's nose. The former champ was great in the fight, coming in well-conditioned, fit, and with a sound strategy. It was just like old times for Lawler.
The American-born brawler averages 3.73 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.42. Despite being an all-state wrestler in high school, Lawler's not very active in the takedown department, averaging just 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes. He boasts a 66% takedown defense rate and averages 0.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Betting Profile: Bryan Barberena (17-8-0)
Last Five Fights (WWLWL)
Barberena comes into this bout riding a two-fight win streak, and he's pretty fresh, considering he just fought Matt Brown back in March. It was a split decision victory for the 33-year-old in which he outstruck Brown 111-81. However, he was on the losing end of the takedown count 5-0. Barberena looked decent in the fight and did enough to win, but I would've liked to see a bit more out of him against an aging Brown.
Similar to Lawler, Barberena will likely want to keep this fight upright. He's averaging just 0.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing at a 25% success rate over his career. The southpaw distributes 5.61 significant strikes per minute at a 49% clip while absorbing 4.83.
Bottom Line
Lawler looked fantastic in his last fight against Diaz, landing 150 significant strikes over 10:44 of fight time. His cardio was great, and you can tell he was prepped for the fight. While Lawler likely won't be making a run at a title again at the age of 40, it's apparent that he hasn't lost his championship mentality.
I will back the former champ on the moneyline in this three-round contest against Barberena. Barberena has fought some tough competition over the years, including names like Vincente Luque, Leon Edwards and Coby Covington, but I think he's far removed from the form he was in back then. I didn't expect “Bam Bam” to destroy Brown, especially in front of Brown's hometown crowd of Columbus, but I thought he would win more handily.
That's why I like Lawler in this spot. If Brown was able to find weaknesses and take Barberena to a split decision, imagine what a former champion in Lawler will be able to do. Look for Lawler to potentially mix in some takedown attempts, as that was a weak spot for Barberena in his last fight. I expect to see a high output from Lawler, and I'm confident he'll get his hand raised on Saturday night in Las Vegas.
Pick: Lawler Moneyline (-120 via DraftKings)
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway Preview
Betting Profile: Alexander Volkanovski (24-1-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
It has been nearly 10 years since we last saw Volkanovski lose in an octagon, as the featherweight champion has won 10 straight since joining the UFC in 2016. Winning the belt vs. Holloway in December 2019 in decisive (unanimous decision) fashion, the two immediately rematched seven months later, and while closer (split decision), it was still a Volkanovski win.
A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Volkanovski is also an elite Muay Thai striker, with 59.38% of strikes being significant (vs. 4.82%). As far as the grappling metrics go, Volkanovski comes into this fight with a significant edge in takedowns, averaging 1.95 per 15 minutes (vs. .31).
Betting Profile: Max Holloway (23-6-0)
Last Five Fights (W-L-L-W-W)
Winning the interim UFC featherweight belt in 2016 with a TKO win over Anthony Pettis, Holloway held the belt for four fights before running into Volkanovski. To this day, Volkanovski is the only fighter to defeat Holloway at featherweight since Conor McGregor back in 2013.
What Holloway lacks in accuracy on his striking, he makes up for in volume, landing 7.38 (vs. 6.63) per 15 minutes inside the octagon. He’s also more accurate with his takedowns at 66.7% (vs. 36.5%) and will have a noticeable size advantage in this fight, standing 5″ taller.
Bottom Line
Any fighter that has wins over Jose Aldo (two) in his prime, Charles Oliveira and Anthony Pettis, should not be taken lightly. Yet, that feels even longer ago than it was. When Holloway steps into the octagon on Saturday, he’ll be doing so on 228 days of inactiveness, and there is no room for ring rust against a fighter of Volkanovski’s caliber.
Outside of Volkanovski’s TKO win over Chan Sung Jung in April, nine of this fighter’s last 10 fights have gone the distance, which speaks to the over being shaded to -195.
While Holloway will no doubt go down as one of the best fighters in UFC history, I currently see more dog in Volkanovski’s game and like for the champion to retain his belt after what should be a war of a fight.
Best Bet: Alex Volkanovski (-195 via DraftKings)
Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira Preview
Betting Profile: Sean Strickland (25-3-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
A now veteran of the UFC, Strickland joined the company in March 2014. He’s gone 9-3 since, as he steps into the octagon with the longest win streak (six) of his career. The last time we saw him in the octagon was a controversial split decision win over Jack Hermansson, a fight in that nearly everyone scored the fight a unanimous Strickland win.
While he’ll be matched in striking across the board Saturday, Strickland does hold large edges on the ground, most notably in takedowns with 1.16 per 15 minutes and an accuracy clip of 61.5%. Thus far in the UFC, Periera has zero in both categories.
Betting Profile: Alex Pereira (5-1-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
A former professional kickboxer, Periera started fighting MMA in 2015, losing his first fight while alternating between the two sports until September 2021. Before joining the UFC, Periera was best known for twice defeating current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya in kickboxing, once by knockout. 2-0 since joining the UFC in November 2021, Periera earned his first decision win the last time we saw him in the octagon over Bruno Silva in March.
While the sample size is smaller, Periera holds his own with Strickland in significant strike volume and defense % but holds a 20% edge in striking accuracy at 60%. He’ll also have a noticeable size advantage at 6’4″, including a 3″ reach advantage in this fight.
Bottom Line
While Strickland has been a warrior inside the octagon for a long time, just once in his past five fights has he finished someone inside the distance, with his past two being five-round fights. That is cause for concern for me against a fighter such as Periera. He got the third fight from the top in a stacked UFC pay-per-view, meaning Dana White has big things planned for the 34-year-old Brazilian.
The one pause for concern I have is Strickland’s grappling game. However, if Periera can stay upright, I like him to wear down Strickland, whose chin hasn’t been tested in a long time like I expect it to be on Saturday. While it might not be inside the distance, I like Periera to prevail.
Best Bet: Alex Periera (-110 via DraftKings)
UFC 276 Prop Bets
Sean Strickland (25-3-0) vs. Alex Pereira (5-1-0)
One word came to mind when I started to break down this fight between a UFC veteran (Strickland) and a relative newcomer (Pereira); violence.
Standing at 6-foot-4, Pereira came over to the UFC in November of last year, since picking up two victories, his most recent decision win over Bruno Silva in March. Before that, he was a professional kickboxer who amassed a record of 33-7, with 23 bouts going by way of KO. Famously, he knocked out current middleweight champ and UFC 276 headliner Adesanua during his kickboxing stint. Since turning professional in MMA (2015), Pereira has knocked four of his past five opponents inside the second round.
Strickland has more vetted experience inside the UFC, but he’s knocked out just one opponent since 2019, as his power has largely faded. With both fighters having a propensity to strike, I like this one to finish by way of KO/TKO.
Bet: KO/TKO/DQ (-150)
Alexander Volkanovski (24-1-0) vs. Max Holloway (23-6-0)
Having fought twice already for the same belt they’ll be fighting for on Saturday night, Volkanovski and Holloway have 10 rounds vs. each other in the bank to draw on when the going gets tough. While the first fight was a clear decision win for Volkanovski, the second was a split decision, and while Holloway no doubt lost the fight, he was much improved against the relentless Volkanovski.
For Holloway’s case, before those two battles in late 2019 and early 2020, Holloway had KO/TKO’d four straight opponents in 2016-2018 and comes into this fight as rested as he’s been in potentially his entire career. Regarding the fight metrics, Holloway beats Volkanovski in significant striking volume, landing 7.38 per 15 minutes in the octagon (vs. 6.63).
While both have the grappling pedigree to compete with the best in the division, I expect this fight to turn into a striking clinic early, with neither fighter interested in this being yet another decision. I have this one closer to even than the oddsmakers as far as head to head, but either way, I like this fight to go by way of the fists.
Bet: KO/TKO/DQ (+225)
Jim Miller (34-16-0) vs. Donald Cerrone (36-16-0)
When these two legends of the fight game step into the octagon on Saturday night, they’ll be doing so with a combined 102 professional fights. In what may be both of their last opportunity on a pay-per-view card, father time has caught up with both, but no one more than “Cowboy” Cerrone.
In fact, you have to go all the way back to May 2019 (seven fights ago) for the last time Cowboy found victory, a decision win vs. Al Laquinta. Of his six losses since, four have gone by way of KO/TKO, with three coming in the very first round.
That aligns poorly with Miller’s recent run, knocking out two straight opponents in the second round, coming into Saturday with a 50% striking accuracy. Lastly, after battling one injury after another and having some bad luck with opponents, it’s been over 400 days since Cowboy last fought, making ring rust a factor as well.
While both fighters are on their way out, I think Miller still has some slugfest ahead of him and see this one ending inside the distance with Miller’s hand raised in the end.
Bet: Jim Miller To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+300)
We will be looking to start this night off with a bang as two long-time UFC veterans are set to square off in this welterweight bout between Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone. This fight may be one of our last chances to fade Cerrone as he has one foot out of the door at this point in his career.
Cerrone has now lost five of his last six fights, with the one non-loss being a majority-draw that got overturned to a no-contest after Niko Price got suspended by the Nevada State Athletic Commission for a positive drug test (marijuana, which is legal in Nevada but against the athletic commission’s laws). While the first three of those five losses were expected as he went against Ferguson/Gaethje/McGregor, it is the last two losses that should be a cause for concern for Cerrone’s backers.
In May of 2020, Cerrone lost to Anthony Pettis when Pettis was on the verge of retirement and had lost three of his last four fights prior (Pettis now fights in the PFL). A year later, Cerrone took on Alex Morono and got knocked out in the first round by a guy who had only one knockout in his 12-fight UFC career prior to that bout.
Of Cerrone’s last four losses, three have been via a first-round knockout. Meanwhile, veteran Jim Miller remains in good form as he has won each of his last two fights via knockout.
Bet: Jim Miller to Win via KO/TKO in Round 1 (+600)
Israel Adesanya (22-1-0) vs. Jared Cannonier (15-5-0)
While Cannonier would be wise to take this one to the ground, holding slight edges in submission and takedowns, this will turn into a striking clinic early and often. Unfortunately for the challenger, Adesanya is one of the best in the world at maintaining distance, and his size advantage in this fight will make that relatively easier than usual.
Despite being successfully defending his middleweight belt five times thus far since winning it in late 2019, only twice has Adesanya done it inside the distance. Additionally, since joining the UFC in 2015, Cannonier has lost inside the distance just two times, with both coming in the very first round and his last coming in 2018.
If Cannonier can escape the first, which I expect him to do given his caliber, I like for this fight to drag on into the later rounds and for Izzy to get the decision win.
Bet: Israel Adesanya To Win By Decision (+120)
Uriah Hall vs. Andre Muniz
Immediately following the Miller/Cerrone fight, we have a middleweight bout between Uriah Hall and Andre Muniz. Opening as a large betting favorite, Muniz will look to remain perfect in the UFC and grab his seventh straight win (two of those prior six victories were part of the DWCS).
We have a clash of styles in this contest as Muniz will look to bring this to the mat while Hall will want to keep this on the feet. While I expect Muniz to win this fight, he may have difficulties finishing Hall while wrestling.
We saw this exact same scenario play out in Hall’s last fight against Sean Strickland. While Strickland went four-of-six on takedown attempts, he was unable to finish Hall and won the fight via unanimous decision.
That Hall/Strickland was a five-round scrap as well, while this fight will be just three rounds. Hall is tough as nails and has not been finished in five straight fights.
This is by far Muniz’s biggest test of his career, but he should be ready for it and I believe it will be via decision as he should just dominate the fight on the mat.
Bet: Andre Muniz via Decision (+600)
Brad Riddell vs. Jalin Turner
In the final fight of the prelims, we have a lightweight bout between Brad Riddell and Jalin Turner. This should be a fascinating fight as Riddell will most likely have to bring this scrap to the mat as he is giving up eight inches in height and six inches in reach to Jalin Turner.
The problem for Riddell is that if he does this, Turner may be able to easily counter and beat him via submission. We have seen this play out in two of Turner’s last three fights as he won via rear naked choke against Uros Medic and Brok Weaver.
I do not really see an alleyway for Riddell to win this fight unless it is on the ground, which gives us tremendous value in backing Turner on the mat. If the fight is fought on the ground for the majority of the scrap, this +700 prop will be just as live as it was for Turner’s last two fights.
Bet: Jalin Turner via Submission (+700)
UFC 276: Top Parlay Odds & Picks
Sean Strickland & Alex Volkanovski Both to Win via Decision (+600)
We are backing both Sean Strickland and Alex Volkanovski. Let us start with Sean Strickland and his scheduled middleweight bout against Alex Pereira.
This fight is currently listed as a pick ’em as both of these guys are extremely talented, and both could be fighting for a chance at the belt. While Pereira is still unranked, he is 2-0 since switching over to the UFC, and Dana White has already stated this week that a win could immediately catapult Pereira to a shot at Adesanya (regardless of whether Izzy wins or loses) as he has beaten him twice in kickboxing prior to the UFC.
However, Pereira will have to get through an extremely tough Sean Strickland, who is currently ranked fourth in the middleweight division and enters this fight in the best form of his career. Strickland has now won each of his last six bouts, with the last three coming via decision.
The big change in Strickland’s recent career trajectory was his return to the middleweight division, as he is 5-0 since his return. Pereira has a bright future in this sport and definitely could win this bout. However, Strickland has years of experience over him and could outduel him for three rounds.
For the other leg of this parlay, we are backing Alex Volkanovski to retain his featherweight title against challenger Max Holloway. This scrap will be the third meeting between these two fighters, as Volkanovski has won each of the first two via decision.
I expect this trend to continue as Volkanovski is currently undefeated in the UFC at 11-0 as nobody in the featherweight division can really compete with him at the moment. Ranked number two in the UFC in the pound-for-pound rankings, Volkanovski should be able to continue his dominance as this fight was the only fight to make for the belt at this time.
History is on our side with Volanovski as well. As broadcaster Adam Catterall pointed out on Twitter this week, Max Holloway is only the third fighter to enter a UFC trilogy fight after losing the first two bouts. The other two guys before Holloway each lost the third fight as well.
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