UFC 276 Odds, Preview & Betting Guide: Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O’Malley (2022)

International Fight Week is upon us, and there are events throughout the week leading up to Saturday night’s stacked UFC 276 card. Two belts will be on the line as Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski battle it out and complete their trilogy in the co-main event. And all roads lead to Israel Adesanya making his sixth title defense, where he’ll square off against Jared Cannonier for the middleweight title. There are a ton of big matchups on tap, including Pedro Munhoz taking on Sean O’Malley on the main card. Let’s dive into this bantamweight bout and lock in a pick for Saturday night!

Betting Profile: Pedro Munhoz (19-7-0, 1NC) 

Last Five Fights (L-L-W-L-L)

The Young Punisher hasn’t found much success over the last three years, but in his defense, he’s competed against some of the best the division offers. Munhoz has four losses over his last five fights. All decision defeats to the following: Aljamain Sterling (U-DEC), Frankie Edgar (S-DEC), Jose Aldo (U-DEC), and Dominick Cruz (U-DEC). Cruz bested Munhoz back in December of 2021 in a bout where the Brazilian-native was outstruck 103-74 and lost the takedown battle 1-0. Cruz was the overall better fighter, although Munhoz had a few shining moments early in the fight. He stunned Cruz with a left hook and knocked him down but was unable to finish him off in the first.

The ninth-ranked bantamweight prefers to stand and bang rather than try and get the fight to the canvas. Munhoz comes in landing 5.50 significant strikes per minute while absorbing an astonishing 6.09 strikes per minute. While he would rather keep the fight upright, it’s worth noting that The Young Punisher has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a brown belt in Judo. He’s a well-rounded brawler who can grapple with the best of them. Munhoz has three submissions in his UFC career, all coming via the guillotine choke.

Betting Profile: Sean O’Malley (15-1-0) 

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-L-W) 

Sugar Sean has been perfect throughout his career aside from a TKO at the hands (or elbows rather) of Marlon “Chito” Vera. Vera landed a leg kick in the first round that compromised O’Malley’s leg, and he was never able to recover and make it through the round. Vera finished him by raining down a couple of elbows in the first round. The Suga Show bounced back over his next pair of fights, collecting knockout finishes over Kris Moutinho and Raulian Paiva, most recently. O’Malley outstruck Paiva 39-11 and finished him in the first round with a combination of powerful punches. 

That’s the recipe for O’Malley. He wants to keep the fight upright and pick you apart on the feet. The 27-year-old American comes into this fight landing an insane 8.26 significant strikes per minute at a 62 percent clip while absorbing just 3.52. He’s not very active when it comes to takedowns, averaging just 0.59 successful takedowns per 15 minutes. 

Bottom Line 

Due to Munhoz’ recent history, he has transitioned into the “gatekeeper” role, which means he’ll be tasked with taking on the rising talent of the division. His first test in this role will be going to battle with a budding star in Sean O’Malley. The American comes in as a pretty sizable favorite, with the cheapest price being -300 at Caesars Sportsbook. In my opinion, this line is inflated strictly due to the hype surrounding Sugar Sean. Obviously, he’s a stud, and I won’t be surprised at all if he gets his hand raised, but Pedro Munhoz (+240) is no slouch either. He’s gone through the gauntlet of the division and proven he’s worthy of fighting the very best in the bantamweight class.

While I’m not 100% sure who wins this bout, I’m fairly confident that it doesn’t make it to the judges’ scorecards. I think we’re in for a finish at some point, so I’ll lock in the under on 2.5 rounds (-110 via Caesars). O’Malley packs some of the heaviest hands in the division, and his discipline to wait for his shot is unparalleled. All six of his last six fights have ended before the bell, with O’Malley being on the right side of the knockouts in five of those. The fact that Munhoz is absorbing 6.09 significant strikes per minute should worry him and his camp. He’s gotten his chin tested plenty of times over his career, but the Suga Show’s power is on a different level. On the flip side, we saw that Munhoz also has speed and power. He was close to finishing Dominick Cruz in his last fight, and if he catches O’Malley at the right time, Munhoz can easily add another finish to his resume. Take the under on 2.5 rounds in this bantamweight fight. 

Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook)

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