UFC 276 Odds, Preview & Betting Guide: Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira (2022)
While the middleweight belt will be on the line in the main event on Saturday, we could see the class’s future in the third fight from the top as Sean Strickland takes on UFC newcomer Alex Pereira. Initially scheduled for UFC 277, the UFC decided to move the fight up to 276 as the middleweight division will now take center stage at the T-Mobile Arena.
Let’s take a closer look at how things might shake out in what I think could be the fight of the night at UFC 276.
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| PARTICIPANTS AND SELECTIONS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ALEX
PEREIRA
|
-121
|
-115
|
-130
|
-120
|
-120
|
-121
|
-121
|
|
SEAN
STRICKLAND
|
EVEN
|
-105
|
+102
|
EVEN
|
EVEN
|
-104
|
-104
|
Betting Profile: Sean Strickland (25-3-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
A now veteran of the UFC, Strickland joined the company in March 2014. He’s gone 9-3 since, as he steps into the octagon with the longest win streak (six) of his career. The last time we saw him in the octagon was a controversial split decision win over Jack Hermansson, a fight in that nearly everyone scored the fight a unanimous Strickland win.
While he’ll be matched in striking across the board Saturday, Strickland does hold large edges on the ground, most notably in takedowns with 1.16 per 15 minutes and an accuracy clip of 61.5%. Thus far in the UFC, Periera has zero in both categories.
Betting Profile: Alex Pereira (5-1-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
A former professional kickboxer, Periera started fighting MMA in 2015, losing his first fight while alternating between the two sports until September 2021. Before joining the UFC, Periera was best known for twice defeating current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya in kickboxing, once by knockout. 2-0 since joining the UFC in November 2021, Periera earned his first decision win the last time we saw him in the octagon over Bruno Silva in March.
While the sample size is smaller, Periera holds his own with Strickland in significant strike volume and defense % but holds a 20% edge in striking accuracy at 60%. He’ll also have a noticeable size advantage at 6’4″, including a 3″ reach advantage in this fight.
Bottom Line
While Strickland has been a warrior inside the octagon for a long time, just once in his past five fights has he finished someone inside the distance, with his past two being five-round fights. That is cause for concern for me against a fighter such as Periera. He got the third fight from the top in a stacked UFC pay-per-view, meaning Dana White has big things planned for the 34-year-old Brazilian.
The one pause for concern I have is Strickland’s grappling game. However, if Periera can stay upright, I like him to wear down Strickland, whose chin hasn’t been tested in a long time like I expect it to be on Saturday. While it might not be inside the distance, I like Periera to prevail.
Best Bet: Alex Periera (-110 via DraftKings)
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