UFC 278: Best Long Shot Bets, Odds & Picks (8/20)
UFC 278 is set to get underway this Saturday at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. This card features plenty of big names, including Jose Aldo, Merab Dvalishvili, Paulo Costa, and Luke Rockhold.
Capping off the night is a welterweight championship bout between reigning champion Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards. This main event is a rematch of their 2015 scrap, a fight in which Usman won via unanimous decision.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this card.
These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.
Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Daniel Da Silva vs. Victor Altamirano
In the first fight of the night, we have a flyweight bout between Daniel Da Silva and Victor Altamirano. There are many uncertainties surrounding this fight, as each has struggled since entering the UFC.
The one thing that I am pretty sure of is that this fight will be fought on the mat. Let us first look at Da Silva.
In each of his two UFC fights, It is clear that he tries to win with his grappling. While neither of those two fights went his way, he did land a takedown against Francisco Figueiredo and had about a minute of control time against Jeff Molina.
Prior to the UFC, Da Silva had some success with his grappling, as two of his last three wins came via submission. Can this translate to his first UFC victory against Altamirano?
A DWCS graduate, Altamirano has not been excellent in preventing takedowns. We saw this in his DWCS bout against Carlos Candelario, a guy who took Altamirano down five times and boasted 5:14 of control time.
We saw this again in his second fight against Carlos Hernandez, who took him down a couple of times as well. If Da Silva is able to bring this to the mat, then his submission game could lead to a tap-out from Altamirano.
Altamirano has four losses between his amateur and professional career prior to his time in the UFC, with all four stemming from submission. Coincidentally, It was a rear naked choke that got him to tap all four times.
This fight could absolutely go either way, with both guys desperately in need of a good performance. Therefore, I think we are getting great value in Da Silva as an underdog.
If he wins, It would most likely be due to his grappling, which makes his submission prop at 4/1 an attractive play.
Pick: Daniel Da Silva to Win via Submission (+400)
Sean Woodson vs. Luis Saldana
In the second fight of the prelims, we have a featherweight bout between Sean Woodson and Luis Saldana. Two DWCS veterans, we can be pretty positive that this fight will stay on the feet.
We know that Woodson absolutely will not shoot for a takedown as he has not even attempted a single one across five UFC fights. Will Saldana shoot?
Possibly. Saldana relied on his striking in his first two fights but has tried to mix in some grappling in his last two.
That being said, Woodson should be able to stifle those attempts even if Saldana wishes to pursue that route. Saldana’s takedown accuracy is a lowly 20%, while Woodson’s takedown defense sits at 82%.
Therefore, I think this fight will stay on the feet, which could lead to a knockout. Can Saldana catch Woodson?
Obviously, crazier things have happened. Saldana has an immense amount of power in his leg kicks, which was evidenced in his knockout win over Vince Murdock in a fight that earned him a UFC contract.
Like Woodson is now, Murdock had never been knocked out in his career until that fight. Woodson is capable of getting caught as he absorbs a lot of strikes.
Since joining the UFC, Woodson has absorbed 3.76 strikes per minute. At 8/1, Saldana could be worth a flyer as I think this fight is ending in a knockout due to these guys’ fighting styles.
Pick: Luis Saldana to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+800)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.