UFC 278 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili (2022)
UFC 278 is set to get underway this Saturday at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. This card features plenty of big names, including Jose Aldo, Merab Dvalishvili, Paulo Costa, and Luke Rockhold.
Capping off the night is a welterweight championship bout between reigning champion Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards. This main event is a rematch of their 2015 scrap, a fight in which Usman won via unanimous decision.
Prior to the main event of the evening, we have a bantamweight fight between future hall-of-famer Jose Aldo and the surging Merab Dvalishvili. This fight opened up as pick ’em and has since gone slightly in Dvalishvili’s direction as he currently sits as a -130 favorite.
As of Tuesday night, 59% of the bets are on Aldo, but 93% of the handle is on Dvalishvili. Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this bantamweight bout.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Betting Profile: Jose Aldo (31-7 Overall / 21-6 UFC)
Last Five Fights (L-L-W-W-W)
Aldo looks to keep the positive momentum going as he enters this bout amidst a three-fight win streak. Those three wins all came via unanimous decision, beating Rob Font (current #7 bantamweight), Pedro Munhoz (#9), and Marlon Vera (#5).
Aldo finds himself in a rare situation of being the underdog. When closing at plus-money, Aldo is 5-3 in his career.
One of the best strikers in the history of the sport, Aldo is looking to make another run at the bantamweight title. A win over the surging Dvalishvili would certainly put him at the forefront of the title conversation once again.
His last three fights prove that Aldo’s striking is still elite, both in terms of accuracy and power. The power was showcased against Font, with Aldo boasting two knockdowns, while the accuracy and volume were showcased against Munhoz, with Aldo landing 114 significant strikes.
This fight will be a clash of styles as Aldo will want to keep the scrap on the feet while Dvalishvili will want to bring it to the mat. The problem for Dvalishvili is that Aldo is one of the most difficult fighters to take down in the history of the UFC.
Over his long and storied career, Aldo boasts a 90% takedown defense. Since making the shift to the 135-pound weight class, Aldo is 3-2.
However, his loss to Marlon Moraes was a controversial split decision, and his other loss to Petr Yan was a championship bout. Is Dvalishvili on Yan’s level? I do not believe so, but he could prove it with a win over Aldo.
Betting Profile: Merab Dvalishvili (14-4 Overall / 7-2 UFC)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
Dvalishvili looks to continue his tear through the bantamweight division as he currently rides a seven-fight win streak. However, there are a few reasons to believe why the current run ends with Aldo.
First of all, Dvalishvili relies on heavily on his grappling. Dominating his opponents on the mat, Dvalishvili boasts a takedown average of 7.3.
The problem with this is that Aldo will be almost impossible to bring to the mat, evidenced by his 90% takedown defense. If Aldo is successful in turning this fight into a striking bout, then Dvalishvili turns into the underdog.
Another reason why he could be in trouble in this fight is that this is by far the biggest test of Dvalishvili’s career. Looking at his seven UFC wins, not a single one was against a ranked fighter.
Bottom Line
The winner of this fight will be the person whose style prevails. If Dvalishvili can successfully take down Aldo, then he could rack up control time and win via decision.
If Aldo can keep It standing, then he will have the advantage in striking. With his 90% takedown defense and vastly superior experience, I believe Aldo’s style will prevail.
Dvalishvili has never been finished in his pro career, and all three of Aldo’s previous wins came via unanimous decision. Keeping the fight standing, Aldo should be able to stifle Dvalishvili’s takedown attempts and frustrate him with his superior striking.
Prediction: Jose Aldo to Win via Unanimous Decision
Best Bet: Jose Aldo Moneyline (+110)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.