UFC 278: Tyson Pedro vs. Harry Hunsucker Betting Guide (2022)
It’s a stacked card for UFC 278 on Saturday night as the promotion hits the road and heads to Salt Lake City, Utah. The main event features the pound-for-pound champ, Kamaru Usman making a Welterweight title defense against challenging Leon Edwards. But first, a banger of a Light Heavyweight battle gets the main card started as Tyson Pedro looks to hand Harry Hunsucker his fourth straight loss. Below I’ll break down each fighter’s recent form, their styles and trends and provide my best bet for the main card opener.
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Betting Profile: Tyson Pedro (8-3-0)
Last Five Fights (WLLWL)
Tyson Pedro got his hand raised the last time that he stepped into the UFC octagon. It was a violent victory for the 30-year-old Australian, who knocked out Ike Villanueva with five seconds left in the first round. Pedro landed 22 significant strikes in the bout while taking just four from Villanueva. It was his first win in three attempts and second in four fights.
Pedro will look to get a winning streak going, and he’ll have a decent shot considering he’ll go toe-to-toe with a man who’s winless in the UFC. As for the stats for “Kangaroo Paws,†he’s landing 2.89 significant strikes per minute at a 64% success rate while absorbing 2.36. Pedro’s somewhat active in the takedown department, averaging 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 25% clip. It’s worth noting that the Australian boasts black belts in Japanese Jiu-Jitsu, Kempo, and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. None of his four UFC wins have gone to the judges’ scorecards, with two coming by knockout and the other pair by submission (kimura, rear naked choke).
Betting Profile: Harry Hunsucker (7-5-0)
Last Three Fights (LLL)
Harry Hunsucker has struggled mightily in his time associated with the UFC. Hunsucker is 0-3, and he’s been on the wrong side of first-round knockouts in all three bouts. Most recently, “The Hurricane†went to sleep via a kick from Justin Tafa just two minutes into the first round. Previously, it was Jared Vanderaa in his debut and the rising Tai Tuivasa shortly after – each via punches. Hunsucker will drop down to light heavyweight for the first time and try his luck in a new division.
The American-born brawler comes in, landing an average of 3.83 significant strikes per minute while absorbing an extremely inflated 6.70. Hunsucker’s averaging 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes but is attempting 2.4 submissions per 15 minutes. The submission attempts are one reason why I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the slumping fighter. You can see that the gears are in motion in his head and that he’s trying to work his technique throughout fights. Nevertheless, he’ll have to learn to keep his hands up, or he’ll be taking a nap for the fourth time in his young UFC career.
Bottom Line
The oddsmakers have Tyson Pedro as a massive favorite, coming in at -740 (via DraftKings) to get his hand raised on Saturday. I 100% agree, considering how efficient Pedro was in his fight versus Villanueva after a four-year layoff. He showed patience throughout the bout and looked really quick in avoiding opposing strikes. Ultimately, I think the speed of Pedro will be a major factor in this fight. Hunsucker may pick up a little quickness dropping down to 205, but it won’t be enough to stay competitive on Saturday. The American will likely have a slight advantage in power, but that means nothing if he’s unable to land very often.
The bottom line is that Harry Hunsucker is a one-trick pony in that he wants to stand in there and try to knock you out. On the contrary, Tyson Pedro is a well-rounded brawler. He’ll likely mix in some early kicks to slow down Hunsucker, and I think he’ll opt to take this fight to the canvas. At that point, look for Pedro to put those three black belts to use and lock in a submission.
Pick: Tyson Pedro to Win by Submission (+275 via DraftKings)
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