UFC 279 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Irene Aldana vs. Macy Chiasson (2022)
The UFC constructed another fantastic numbered card this weekend which is set to take place in the Fight Capital of the World, Las Vegas, Nevada. All roads lead to a main event featuring Nate Diaz as a massive underdog (+750) taking on #3 Khamzat Chimaev in a five-round, non-championship fight. It’s a stacked card from top to bottom, including a ranked women’s bantamweight bout between #4 Irene Aldana and #10 Macy Chiasson. Let’s dive into each fighter’s recent history, stats and tendencies and lock in a bet for Saturday night.
Betting Profile: Irene Aldana (13-6-0)
Last Five Fights (WLWWL)
#4 Irene Aldana has alternated wins and losses over her last three fights and posted a 3-2 record over her last five competitions. Most recently, it was a dominant KO performance against Yana Kunitskaya, who she finished with 25 seconds left in the first round. Sandwiched in between another impressive KO, this one against Ketlen Vieira, was Aldana’s first main event fight against Holly Holm. That was a five-round beatdown from Holm, who outstruck her 154-69 with five takedowns and 5:16 in control time. Aldana bounced back with the win over Kunitskaya in July of 2021 and looks to put a streak together as she steps back into the cage for the first time in 14 months.
As for the stats, you can expect a high volume of striking from the 34-year-old. Aldana’s averaging 5.61 significant strikes per minute at a mere 39% clip while absorbing 5.94 strikes per minute. When it comes to grappling, you won’t see the Mexican-born brawler taking the initiative when it comes to takedowns. She’s averaging 0.22 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 50% success rate while boasting a nice defense rate of 84%.
Betting Profile: Macy Chiasson (9-2-0)
Last Five Fights (WLWWL)
#10 Macy Chiasson looks to make a jump in the rankings as she makes the walk for the second time in 2022. She was victorious in May, notching a six-takedown, split decision victory over Norma Dumont. Chiasson was outstruck 38-32 in the bout; however, she was able to amass 7:34 in control time thanks to her wrestling skills.
Six takedowns was a career-high for the American, and she’s been very active in the grappling department over her last four fights, tallying a total of 11 takedowns. Chiasson comes into this fight averaging 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes, and she’s landing 33% of the time. Defensively, she’s defending 64%. As for the 31-year-old’s striking, she lands 45% of her shots and accumulates an average of 3.70 strikes per minute while absorbing 2.56 per minute.
Bottom Line
This women’s bantamweight bout is shaping up to be a classic striker vs. wrestler contest. Can Chiasson break through Aldana’s 84% takedown defense? And if she does, can she coast her way to victory off of ground control and what will likely be another deficit in the striking department? In my opinion, I don’t see that happening. Aldana looked very sharp last time she was in the cage and put on an impressive display of power against the former fifth-ranked Kunitskaya. She left her bloody and dazed, which is pretty rare to come across in women’s fights nowadays.
Ultimately, Aldana’s takedown defense is enough to neutralize Chiasson, and if these two are vertical for 15 minutes, we’re going to see a clear advantage for the higher-ranked Aldana. She’s fast, powerful, and has her eyes set on a run at the bantamweight strap. Let’s roll with the favorite in this main card contest.
Pick: Irene Aldana Moneyline (-152 via FanDuel)
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