UFC 279 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz (2022)
Stockton, Calif.’s finest returns to the octagon on Saturday night for the first time in over a year, for what will likely be his final time following his departure from the promotion following this fight.
His challenger? Only one of the most feared fighters walking the planet – fellow lightweight Khamzat Chimaev.
While UFC 279 is filled with plenty of value from top to bottom, let’s take a closer look at Saturday’s main event.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Khamzat Chimaev (11-0-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
Making his UFC debut in July 2020, Khamzat Chimaev had made relatively light work of his competition before running into Gilbert Burns in April. That three-round fight, which he definitely won, ultimately went to the judge’s scorecard after three rounds of tremendous violence.
Before that fight against the former title challenger Burns, Chimaev had rattled off 10 straight wins inside of two rounds, including seven of which ended in the first round. His 7.89 significant strikes landed per minute are amongst the highest in the welterweight division, and he also comes into this fight averaging 2.69 submissions and 3.23 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Betting Profile: Nate Diaz (21-13-0)
Last Five Fights (L-L-W-L-W)
In what could very well be the end of the Diaz era in the UFC, Nate Diaz joined the promotion via The Ultimate Fighter in 2007 and has since been a staple of the fight game. Fighting a whose who of the division in the time since, Diaz does come into this one having lost three of his past four, with his most recent being a decision loss to current welterweight champion Leon Edwards in June 2021.
While it’s hard to find any edge for Diaz in this one, he does absorb slightly fewer strikes per minute at 3.73 vs. 4.3 of Chimaev.
Bottom Line
With the average total rounds between these two sitting at 1.7, this number appears about right on the surface. But these aren’t your average (or even median) fighters stepping into the octagon late on Saturday.
For one, Diaz has less than zero to lose with this one, and I expect we see him respond accordingly in an aggressive game plan right from the start. For Chimaev, anything less than an early finish will put his increasing legend into question.
Look for this one to end very early.
Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (-125 via DraftKings)
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