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UFC 280 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2022)

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UFC 280 is set to get underway this Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Perhaps this biggest card of this year, we have two title fights and multiple scraps between top contenders.

Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this card. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.

Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

UFC 280 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (10/22)

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

On the preliminary card, we have a welterweight bout between Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev. This scrap should be a great display of mixed martial arts, as both guys do an excellent job mixing their styles and can excel in both striking and grappling.

During the parts of this fight that stay standing, we should expect Nurmagomedov to take advantage. Compared to Omargadzhiev, Nurmagomedov boasts the advantage in strikes landed per minute (3.59 to 1.21), striking accuracy (49% to 41%), and striking defense (69% to 38%).

In his career, Nurmagomedov boasts a professional record of 16-3-1 across multiple different promotions. Of those 16 wins, 10 have come inside the distance, and six were via KO/TKO.

We are getting value with the knockout prop for this fight because Omargadzhiev only has one professional loss via decision. However, his chin has failed him before, as he got knocked out in his last amateur fight before turning pro.

Pick: Abubakar Nurmagomedov to Win via KO/TKO (+700)

Katlyn Chookagian vs. Manon Fiorot

We have what should be a great women’s flyweight bout on the main card between Katlyn Chookagian and Manon Fiorot. These fighters will almost certainly keep this fight standing as they are both high-volume strikers.

With that in mind, the advantage resides with Fiorot. In the UFC, she has landed more strikes per minute than Chookagian (6.60 to 4.56), landed at a higher accuracy (45% to 35%), absorbed fewer strikes per minute (2.52 to 4.26), and defended at a higher accuracy (70% to 63%).

Undefeated since entering the UFC, Fiorot is 4-0 with two knockouts. Of her nine professional wins, six have come via knockout.

Meanwhile, each of Chookagian’s last two losses has come via knockout. While those losses were to Jessica Andrade and Valentina Shevcehnko, Fiorot is climbing the rankings as she is making her case to fight Shevchenko for the belt.

Look for her to make that statement in a vicious fashion on Saturday.

Pick: Manon Fiorot to Win via KO/TKO (+490)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.