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UFC 280 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev (2022)

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The best card of the year is finally upon us, featuring no less than four fights that could serve as the main event at a UFC Fight Night or PPV. At the top, two title fights will close out the afternoon, as both the bantamweight and lightweight titles will be on the line.

While I have plenty of thoughts on the full UFC 280 card, take a closer look at the main event of the evening, and see where the value lies as fight night approaches.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Charles Oliveira (33-8-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Heading in with an 11-fight winning streak, Oliveira has submitted seven of his opponents while finishing out 10 of his opponents inside the distance. “Do Bronx,” who possesses some of the best jiu-jitsu the sport has ever seen, submits 2.89 opponents every 15 minutes, resulting in 64% of his victories being decided on the ground.

The last time we saw him in the octagon, despite missing weight by half a point, Oliveira made relative lightwork of Justin Gaethje, submitting him in the very first round.

Betting Profile: Islam Makhachev (22-1-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Islam Makhachev, a disciple of Khabib who has won 10 straight matches (all in the UFC) and 60% of them inside the distance, including three of his last four by submission, enters the fray to end Oliveira’s reign. While Makhachev does not outstrike Oliveira in this fight according to the numbers, he takes a smaller percentage of strikes and possesses some of the strongest striking defenses in the UFC.

He also finished his last opponent in the very first round, a first-round KO of Bobby Green for his second straight first-round finish.

Bottom Line

While Oliveira’s run has been nothing short of legendary, I think we see it end in this one. For the first time since his career resurgence in 2018, Oliveira’s ground game will be matched in this one by the elite level of Sambo wrestling from Makhachev.

Despite trailing slightly in the metrics, I think Makhachev can also stand and swing with Oliveira if that’s the route this fight ends up going. With the number on the move in favor of Islam, I’m jumping on him ending this one before the final bell on Saturday in Abu Dhabi.

Best Bet: Islam Makhachev Wins Inside the Distance (-105 via DraftKings)

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