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UFC 281 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili (11/12)

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UFC 281 will get underway this Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York City. One of the more stacked cards of this calendar year, we have two title fights and multiple scraps between top contenders.

The first title fight is in the women’s strawweight division as Carla Esparza looks to defend the belt against the No. 2 ranked challenger, Zhang Weili. Weili opened up as a -150 favorite before being bet up all the way to -330.

As of Wednesday evening, 91% of the handle and 89% of the tickets are on the challenger.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this strawweight title fight. The play below is one unit or 1% of your betting bankroll.

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(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Carla Esparza (20-6 Overall / 10-4 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Carla Esparza looks to defend the belt for the first time after defeating Rose Namajunas via split decision back in May. Not only was the outcome of that fight extremely controversial, but It was also one of the worst championship bouts in the history of the sport.

Neither fighter did remotely close to anything resembling a championship-winning performance, and quite frankly a win in either direction would have left people disappointed. While Esparza has won each of her last six fights, she has been on the right side of every controversial decision.

Over that six-fight stretch, she has three wins via split decision and one via majority decision. Prior to this stretch of fortunate decisions, Esparza was just 4-4 in the UFC with two losses via knockout.

Her striking could be a problem as she only lands 2.2 strikes per minute at a mere 40% accuracy. Meanwhile, her grappling is not much better as she possesses a 35% takedown accuracy.

Betting Profile: Zhang Weili (22-3 Overall / 6-2 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-L-W-W)

Since joining the UFC, Weili has won six of her eight fights. Her only two losses are both to Rose Namajunas, who quite frankly should probably still be the champion.

Additionally, her second loss to Rose could have absolutely gone either direction as Namajunas defended her belt via split decision. Outside of her losses to Namajunas, Weili is undefeated in the UFC with three of her last five victories coming inside the distance.

Capable of winning this fight either standing or on the mat, Weili will likely stay standing due to her striking advantage over Esparza. Weili is three inches taller, lands over three and a half strikes more per minute, and is seven percent more accurate with her striking than Esparza.

Weili’s resume is far more impressive in this matchup with two wins over Joanna Jedrzecjczyk and a win over Jessica Andrade. While Esparza does possess a win over Namajunas, It was a very controversial decision where neither fighter did anything worthy of winning the bout.

Bottom Line

At surface value, Weili is just a more talented mixed martial artist than Esparza. The betting market agrees with this assessment as she has been bet up from her opening price of -150 all the way up to the current price 0f -330.

Regardless of whether this fight stays standing or goes to the mat, Weili should possess the advantage either way. A former champion in this division, Weili’s only problem has been Rose Namajunas, and the decision could have easily gone her way in their second bout.

Esparza is extremely fortunate that the decision went her way in the victory over Namjunas, and her title reign is likely to be a short one.

Prediction & Best Bet: Zhang Weili to Win Inside the Distance (+100)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.