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UFC 281 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Dan Hooker vs. Claudio Puelles (11/12)

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One of the top to bottom best UFC cards in recent memory, UFC 281 goes off on Saturday night live from Madison Square Garden in New York City. While there are plenty of great fights throughout the evening, the three at the top offer two title fights and a matchup of the top five lightweights to close out the evening.

While the full UFC 281 preview offers a more comprehensive look at this card, today we focus on the fight that kicks off the main card between a pair of lightweights. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup between Dan “The Hangman” Hooker and Claudio “Prince of Peru” Puelles.

Bet $5 on UFC 281, win $200 if your first moneyline bet wins! >>

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Dan Hooker (21-12-0)

Last Five Fights (L-L-W-L-L)

Winning six of seven fights from 2017 to early 2020, Hooker appeared to be in line for a shot at the lightweight belt before the wheels fell off. Starting with his June 2020 loss to Dustin Poirier (decision), Hooker has now lost four of his past five fights, with three of those losses coming in the very first round.

Coming into this fight, Hooker has edges nearly across the board in knockdown average per 15 minutes, significant strikes landed, and striking defense. He also holds the edge in takedown defense, something he’ll need to take advantage of, given the disparity in grappling metrics with his opponent on the ground.

Betting Profile: Claudio Puelles (12-2-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Since officially joining the UFC in 2018 via The Ultimate Fighter, Puelles has won all five fights, with three coming inside the distance via submission. The last time we saw him inside of the octagon was an April defeat over 40-year-old Clay Guida, a first-round submission that he made look relatively easy.

The challenge should get much tougher here vs. Hooker, and Puelles would be wise to lean on his grappling. As of this fight, Puelles holds large edges in both submission (4x) and takedown (3x) averages, and I expect to see him look to exploit those out of the gates.

Bottom Line

With his full City Kickboxing team here in New York City and four and three other teammates also on the card, Hooker is in real trouble if he can pull things together for this one. Though Puelles’ run has been impressive, he’s taking a significant step up here, one I’m not sure he’s quite ready for yet.

We’ve seen this number come down quite a bit since opening at -200, and I’m pouncing before it goes back in that direction.

Best Bet: Dan Hooker (-160 via DraftKings)

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