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UFC 281 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez (11/12)

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The Octagon arrives in New York City for the UFC’s now annual appearance at Madison Square Garden following an exciting night of action at the UFC APEX, where nine of 11 fights inside of the final bell.

With a number of fights having divisional relevance, a first-ballot Hall of Famer making his last appearance, a grudge match in the lightweight division, and two significant championship fights, this UFC 281 card has one of the strongest lineups of the past few years.

While we have a full card of the top UFC predictions for 281, let’s take a closer look at that farewell fight for the legend Frankie Edgar.

Bet $5 on UFC 281, win $200 if your first moneyline bet wins! >>

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Frankie Edgar (24-10-1)

Last Five Fights (L-W-W-L-L)

Joining the UFC in 2007, Frankie Edgar has fought some of the biggest names the sport has ever seen, as he holds wins over the likes of BJ Penn (3), Gray Maynard, Charles Oliveira, Chad Mendes, and Yair Rodriguez; just to name a few. “The Answer” has answered the call for the better part of two decades when the UFC called, and they are sending him off with his biggest payday in quite some time, a main event card spot at Madison Square Garden.

If he wants a chance to win this fight, it’ll have to be on the ground, as he holds the edges there both in submission and takedowns, the only edges he has vs. Gutierrez.

Betting Profile: Chris Gutierrez (18-4-2)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-D-W)

Chris Gutierrez comes into this fight having won his previous seven fights, all of which have been his only bouts with the UFC. He also comes into this fight holding edges nearly across the board in striking, with his biggest being in knockdown average per 15 minutes where he has a 5x edge.

While Gutierrez does not lead in stats on the ground, his 73% takedown defense makes me feel better about those data points, and how he should be able to avoid disaster if this fight were to go there.

Bottom Line

I love a good feel-good story just as much as the next guy, but I just don’t see how Frankie Edgar (40 could win this fight. Gutierrez (31) also holds significant advantages going into this fight in knockdown average (5x) and sig. strike accuracy.

Given their nine-year age difference and the fact that Edgar hasn’t fought in over a year (ring rust), I predict Gutierrez will win this fight, almost certainly within the distance.

Best Bet: Chris Gutierrez (-210 via DraftKings)

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