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UFC 281 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira (11/12)

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UFC 281 will get underway this Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York City. One of the more stacked cards of this calendar year, we have two title fights and multiple scraps between top contenders.

The main event is the middleweight title fight, with Israel Adesanya defending his belt against Alex Pereira. Adesanya opened up as a -200 favorite and remains around that price.

As of Wednesday evening, 60% of the tickets and 64% of the handle are on the defending champion.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this middleweight title fight. The play below is one unit or 1% of your betting bankroll.

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(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Israel Adesanya (23-1 Overall / 12-1 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-L-W)

Israel Adesanya looks to defend the belt for a seventh straight time. His lone career loss was to Jan Blachowicz when he moved up a division in an attempt to hold two belts simultaneously.

Unfortunately for Adesanya, the size difference was too much to overcome as Blachowicz basically laid on top of him for 25 straight minutes. That loss should not be used against Adesanya whatsoever, especially considering that he is back down in the middleweight division and continuing to destroy everyone in his path.

Undefeated in this weight class, Adesanya has cleared out every contender, including the likes of Jared Cannonier, Robert Whittaker (2x), Marvin Vettori (2x), and Paulo Costa. When a guy holds a belt for this long, It is more so because of his fight IQ than any other aspect of his game.

Utilizing experience and a smarter fight game than his opposition, Adesanya just does what needs to be done in order to grab a win. As a champion, he can afford to stay cautious and pick his moments, which has led to six of his last eight wins coming via unanimous decision.

We saw this same trend play out when GSP defended his belt year after year, with seven of his last eight victories coming via decision. A smarter and more experienced fighter than Pereira, this scenario is the likely path to victory for Adesanya once again.

Betting Profile: Alex Pereira (6-1 Overall / 3-0 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W)

Making just his fourth appearance under the UFC promotion, Pereira’s meteoric rise is fueled by the fact that he beat Adesanya twice when they were both in the Glory kickboxing promotion. One of those two wins came via knockout, with gloves heavier than those they now use in the UFC.

However, the most recent of those two wins came in 2017, and Adesanya is obviously not the same guy he was five years ago. Additionally, there are different elements to mixed martial arts than kickboxing.

These facts are not necessarily an indictment on Pereira, who has been on a warpath since joining the UFC. He knocked out Andreas Michailidis with a flying knee in his UFC debut, beat Bruno Silva via unanimous decision, and most recently knocked out the very talented Sean Strickland in the first round.

Pereira has the power of a god in his left hand, and that knockout punch is certainly his most realistic path to victory. He has yet to even attempt a takedown through his first three UFC appearances.

Bottom Line

There will probably be two strikingly different game plans in this fight. Pereira is likely to push forward and knock out Adesanya with his power. At the same time, the defending champion will likely utilize his reach and leg kicks to keep Periera at a distance while racking up points until the final bell.

In this fight, the two most likely scenarios are Adesanya to win via decision and Pereira to win via knockout. While I believe that Pereira can and will knock out a champion to take his belt, I think this fight is too early in Pereira’s UFC journey for that to occur.

Adesanya is far more seasoned and experienced in the octagon and will likely utilize the entire space to his advantage. He can keep Pereira at length with his experience in the cage, which will neutralize Pereiera’s greatest asset.

Adesanya has a chip on his shoulder when fighting in the middleweight division for the first time in years. If these two have a rematch, Pereira will be a bigger threat with more experience.

However, Adesanya’s experience should be the difference in this fight.

Prediction & Best Bet: Israel Adesanya to Win via Decision (+110)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.