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UFC 281 Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2022)

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UFC 281 will get underway this Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York City. One of the more stacked cards of this calendar year, we have two title fights and multiple scraps between top contenders.

Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.

Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.

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(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

UFC 281 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets

Brad Riddell vs. Renato Moicano

To cap off the preliminary card, we have a lightweight bout between Brad Riddell and Renato Moicano. Riddell is likely listed as an underdog primarily due to the fact that he is coming off two straight losses.

However, those two losses are to Jalin Turner and Rafael Fiziev. Currently, Turner is the #10 contender in the lightweight division and has won five straight fights inside the distance.

Meanwhile, Fiziev is the #6 contender in the lightweight division and has won six straight scraps. Neither of those two losses should be used against Riddell, who has looked sharp since joining the UFC promotion and training under City Kickboxing.

A tactical striker, Riddell has landed 4.73 strikers per minute at 53% accuracy. Despite not earning a KO/TKO under the UFC umbrella, he has demonstrated his power with five professional wins via KO/TKO prior to jumping ship.

At the same time, Moicano’s chin has arguably been his biggest weakness in the UFC. Absorbing 4.07 strikes per minute, he has been knocked out in three of his five UFC losses.

In what is likely to be a standing fight, the striking edge should lean to Riddell. Most standing bouts start with a feel-out round, so Riddell knocking Moicano out in Round 2 is worth a play.

Pick: Brad Riddell to Win via KO/TKO in Round 2 (+1100)

Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler

In the final non-title fight of the main card, we have a lightweight between the #5 contender Michael Chandler and the #2 contender Dustin Poirier. Both of these guys are starting to turn into lethal gatekeepers of the lightweight division as they each beat everyone outside of the champions or other top contenders.

Poirier has won seven of his last nine fights with his only two losses coming to Khabib and Charles Oliveira. Chandler has won two of his first four fights since jumping over from the Bellator promotion, with those two losses coming against Justin Gaethje and Oliveira.

Currently, there is a trio of guys (Poirier, Chandler, and Gaethje) that are better than everyone else in the division but are not good enough to dethrone either of the top two guys in Oliveira or Makhachev. Despite that fact, there is no denying that Poirier and Chandler are both two of the best that the UFC has to offer.

Each guy can win a fight via any method as they both encompass what It means to be a mixed martial artist. That being said, this scrap should be much closer to a pick ’em than the current betting price indicates.

Both guys’ stats are virtually identical in every single category, and both have a long litany of history whether in this promotion or in rival companies. In terms of value, Chandler needs to be the play here because It should be a toss-up but yet he is listed as a relatively long underdog for this caliber of talent.

If you are backing Chandler to win, then taking an even longer price at KO/TKO is the way to go. Each of Chandler’s last four professional wins is via KO/TKO while Poirier has been beaten inside the distance in each of his last four losses.

Pick: Michael Chandler to Win via KO/TKO (+380)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.