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UFC 281 Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

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The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden this weekend for a monster card including a pair of title fights. In the co-main event, Carla Esparza makes her first title defense in the Women’s Strawweight division and will take on former champion Zhang Weili. The night continues with a highly anticipated Middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira. There are plenty of ways to bet on Saturday’s UFC 281 card, including taking it to the prop sheet! Here are my top three prop bets for this weekend’s card. 

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(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

UFC 281 Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions

Dustin Poirier (-225) vs. Michael Chandler (+190)

From knockout victories over Dan Hooker and Tony Ferguson to the 15-minute slugfest against Justin Gaethje, you always get your money’s worth when Michael Chandler steps into the cage. He’ll take on second-ranked Dustin Poirier this weekend in a key Lightweight fight. 

I’m not expecting much of a feeling-out process in this one. I expect Iron Mike to come out swinging and take it to Poirier right from the start. However, I think Poirier has a technical advantage in this matchup, which should help fend off the early barrage of strikes. Chandler may turn to his wrestling from that point, but Poirier’s also a top-notch grappler and should be able to neutralize his attacks.

Whether it’s Chandler finding home with a powerful blow or Poirier landing clean with a counterstrike, I’m leaning toward someone going to sleep in this fight. I’m going to take a shot and say this one ends in the second round. As I mentioned, I think Diamond Dustin has a technical edge, which should be enough to get him to the second round. With Chandler, he’s simply too tough to take out in the first round. Although, if he expends a lot of energy in the first round, Poirier will have some opportunities to finish him in the second. However this one plays out, I think there’s a good chance it ends in the second.

Bet: Fight Ends in Round 2 (+300 via DraftKings)

Carla Esparza (+275) vs. Zhang Weili (-330)

Carla Esparza comes into this title bout riding a six-fight win streak and she’ll take on second-ranked Zhang Weili in her first defense of the strap. Weili is a sizable favorite at -330 over the American and I’d say that’s accurately priced considering how each fighter looked last time out. Weili dominated Joanna Jedrzejczyk back in June, outstriking her 69-43, landing three takedowns to Joanna’s zero and ultimately finishing her with a spinning back fist knockout. As for Esparza, she captured the title from Rose Namajunas in a snoozer of a fight. Esparza won via split decision in a bout where she was outstruck by the former champ 37-30 over five rounds. 

I like for Weili to get the finish in this fight, whether it be by KO or submission. That’s what I’ll lock in at a modest +100 payout. The Chinese-born brawler looks like she’s on a mission to reclaim her Strawweight belt and simply looked too good last time out to try and bet against. Since this one’s scheduled for five rounds, Weili will have plenty of time to look for takedowns and work her ground game or try for a submission. Grappling, at least defensively, is a bit of a weakness for Esparza and I believe that will be the difference-maker. She’s defending just 47% of opposing takedown attempts, which should leave the door open for Weili to collect a lot of ground control time. Let’s ride with Zhang Weili to win inside the distance in the co-main event.

Bet: Zhang Weili To Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+100 via DraftKings)

Israel Adesanya (-215) vs. Alex Pereira (+185)

All roads lead to the Middleweight championship bout between Israel Adesanya and fourth-ranked Alex Pereira. Pereira has had a meteoric rise in the UFC as he’s a perfect 3-0 with two knockouts and a convincing decision win over Bruno Silva back in March. Meanwhile, Adesanya has been on top of the world and is set to make his sixth title defense at Middleweight. The Last Stylebender sees himself as a -215 favorite on Saturday, despite being 0-2 against Pereira during his time as a kickboxer. 

Both of these fighters come in with a point to prove. Adesanya has been getting grilled by the media for his winless efforts against the challenger while Pereira knows that their head-to-head history means nothing if he can’t come out on top on Saturday. Tensions will be high in the main event and I think that will lead to someone slipping up and making a critical error. I lean towards that being Pereira. This will be his biggest step up in competition and with him being the challenger, he’ll have to be the one providing the pressure. However, the Brazilian clearly has knockout power, so if he can catch Adesanya, he could put him away before the final bell. All things considered, I don’t think this fight makes it to the judges’ scorecards. 

Bet: Fight Does Not Go the Distance (-110 via DraftKings)

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