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UFC 282 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Alex Morono vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (2022)

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The UFC returns to the Fight Capital of the World for a stacked UFC 282 card featuring a title fight in the Light Heavyweight Division. The main event sees Jan Blachowicz go toe-to-toe with Magomed Ankalaev, with the winner claiming division supremacy and taking home the vacated belt. Prior to the title bout, we have a banger on the docket with Alex Morono taking on Santiago Ponzinibbio in a catchweight fight (180 Lbs.). Let’s get into each fighter’s recent form and get a best bet locked in for this main card showdown.

Betting Profile: Alex Morono (22-7-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights (WWWWL)

Alex Morono steps in on just six days’ notice after Robbie Lawler was scratched with an undisclosed injury. Morono’s red hot right now and riding a four-fight win streak with victories against Donald Cerrone, David Zawada, Mickey Gall, and Matthew Semelsberger most recently. The three recent fights were unanimous decision wins, and Morono added a first-round knock-out victory over Cowboy Cerrone back in May of 2021. 

The American’s very active in the striking department, considering he’s averaging 5.36 significant strikes per minute. He’s also absorbing 4.01 shots per minute. Morono is currently a black belt in Taekwondo and also boasts a second-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Despite having the BJJ black belt, grappling is an area of concern for The Great White. He’s landing just 20% of his takedowns while defending 51% of opposing takedown attempts. 

Betting Profile: Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-6-0)

Last Five Fights (LLWLW)

Thirty-six-year-old Santiago Ponzinibbio makes the UFC walk for the 16th time in his career this Saturday. He’s been on the wrong side of split decisions in his last two bouts – first to Geoff Neal in December of 2021 and to Michel Pereira in May of this year. Ponzinibbio’s last victory came in June of 2021 when he bested Miguel Baeza via unanimous decision. The “Argentine Dagger” outstruck Baeza 121-104 in the bout, and he’s landed an average of 105.7 strikes in his last three fights. 

The recent average is slightly elevated compared to his career mark of 5.00 significant strikes per minute, but that’s still impressive. Ponzinibbio is absorbing 4.77 significant strikes per minute, but opponents are landing at just a 40% clip. The Argentinian is a black belt in BJJ and has been a member of the American Top Team since 2015. As for his wrestling, the veteran averages 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 31% success rate while defending 60% of opposing takedown attempts. 

Bottom Line

Solely based on the striking numbers, we should be in for some fireworks in this catchweight matchup. The oddsmakers see Ponzinibbio as a -180 favorite, while Morono comes back at +155 to get his hand raised.

I’m going to take a shot with the underdog and back Alex Morono to come away victorious on Saturday night. Considering he’s taking this fight on short notice, he must be confident and have an idea of a clear path to victory against Ponzinibbio. Morono, in my opinion, has the striking advantage, and I think his Taekwondo background gives him an edge considering this one will likely stay on the feet for the majority of the fight. Let’s lock in the younger fighter who’s trending upward and riding a four-fight win streak. Give me Morono.

Pick: Alex Morono Moneyline (+155 via DraftKings)

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