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UFC 282 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Darren Till vs. Dricus Du Plessis (2022)

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The UFC returns to the Fight Capital of the World for a stacked UFC 282 card featuring a title fight in the Light Heavyweight Division. The main event sees Jan Blachowicz go toe-to-toe with Magomed Ankalaev, with the winner claiming division supremacy and taking home the vacated belt.

Before the title bout, 10th-ranked Darren Till squares off against 14th-ranked Dricus Du Plessis in a Middleweight Division clash. Let’s get into each fighter’s recent form and get the best bet locked in for this main card showdown.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Darren Till (18-4-1)

Last Five Fights (L-L-W-L-L)

It’s been a rough four-year stretch for Darren Till, with all four of his professional losses coming over this timeframe of five fights. It started with a title fight loss to Tyron Woodley back in September 2018, and the downslide continued with losses to Jorge Masvidal, Robert Whittaker and Derek Brunson. The lone win was a split-decision victory against Kelvin Gastelum in which Gastelum actually outstruck Till 40-36. The four losses obviously weren’t to no-names; however, they were still defeats and caused Till to move into a gatekeeper role in the division. 

Statistically, the Englishman is more of a patient fighter, considering he’s only landing 2.26 significant strikes per minute. He’s absorbing 3.02 shots per minute, and it’s never a good recipe when you’re taking more strikes than you’re dishing out. In the grappling department, Till’s averaging 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 41% success rate while defending 78% of opposing attempts. 

Betting Profile: Dricus Du Plessis (17-2-0)

Last Three Fights (W-W-W)

Dricus Du Plessis is a perfect 3-0 since entering the UFC, and his thrilling wins have earned him a number next to his name. The 14th-ranked contender comes in with a pair of knockout wins over Markus Perez and Trevin Giles, and he grinded out a unanimous victory last time against Brad Tavares. “Stillknocks” amassed 113 strikes in the July victory against Tavares while taking just 82 shots. 

The massive output boosted Du Plessis’ statistics, and he’s now averaging 6.55 significant strikes per minute at a 51% clip. As for his wrestling, the South African owns a 100% takedown defense rate in the UFC while averaging 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes at just an 18% success rate. 

Bottom Line

The oddsmakers see Du Plessis as a -180 favorite to get his hand raised on Saturday, while Till comes back at +155. I’ll have to agree with the books here, and I’m going to lay the juice with Du Plessis.

First, I don’t like how Till’s career is trending. Even though his losses have come against some of the best in the world, his confidence can’t be good as he continues to slide down the rankings. On the flip side, Du Plessis has come into the promotion with a bang, and he’s dominated throughout his professional career. He’s a former two-time champion in the Extreme Fighting Championship (middleweight and welterweight) and held the strap in the KSW promotion.

While the UFC is a different game, I think the South African has what it takes to be a real threat in the division. He’s very well-rounded and has excellent finishing ability. Seven of his 17 professional fights have come via knockouts, and he’s also added nine submissions. Let’s ride with Du Plessis to collect his fourth UFC victory on Saturday night. 

Pick: Dricus Du Plessis Moneyline (-180)

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