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UFC 282 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev (2022)

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After finishing both October and November at +70% (+29.5 units) with our free UFC predictions, we came somewhat back down to earth, breaking even at UFC Orlando to start the month of December. Now, our attention turns to the final PPV of the year, as UFC 282 has a ton of value from top to bottom as I see it.

Today, however, let’s take a closer look at the main event of the evening, a light heavyweight title fight between Jan Blachowcz and Magomed Ankalaev.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Jan Blachowicz (29-9-0)

Last Five Fights (W-L-W-W-W)

Entering the octagon at 39 years old, Blachowicz has faced a gauntlet of killers in the UFC, culminating with a September 2020 title win over Dominick Reyes at UFC 253. After defending it once vs. Israel Adesanya, Blachowicz was upset by Glover Texeira at UFC 267 in October of 2021.

Winning his next fight vs. Aleksandar Rakic in May, Blachowicz jumped the line for another shot following the recent injury of Jiri Prochazka, vacating the title. Coming into this matchup vs. the heavily favored Ankalaev, Blachowicz does hold the slight edge on the ground, with a submission average of .27 per 15 minutes.

Betting Profile: Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

After losing his UFC debut vs. Paul Craig, Ankalaev has gone on to win his next nine fights, five of which have ended KO/TKO. In his most recent bout, he knocked out Anthony Smith in the second round, setting himself up for this fight for the vacated light heavyweight belt.

While they might be slight, Ankalaev holds edges in striking and striking defense. He also absorbs fewer shots at just 2.14 per minute. One area he does hold a large edge (2x) is the knockdown average per 15 minutes at .81.

Bottom Line

For two fighters who throw heavy punches, they both are as durable as they come in the light heavyweight division. On average, just 60% of their wins have come inside the distance, both showing a methodical approach despite their large physical stature.

While I lean toward the over 2.5 rounds, I also think there is a good amount of value in the surging Ankalaev. While Blachowicz would have surely taken in him his prime, the nine-year age difference is certainly giving me pause for concern.

Look for the 30-year-old Ankalaev to chip away at the veteran and for him to finish him in the later rounds as opportunities continue to present themselves.

Best Bet: Magomed Ankalaev (-275 via DraftKings)

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