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UFC 282 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon (2022)

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UFC 282 will get underway this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This card features a deep lineup with many great fights set to take place.

The co-main event features a lightweight battle between fan-favorite Paddy Pimblett and Jared Gordon. Pimblett opened up as a -165 favorite before being bet up all the way to -250.

As of Thursday morning, 95% of the handle and 91% of the tickets are on the favorite.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this lightweight fight. The play below is one unit or 1% of your betting bankroll.

Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Paddy Pimblett (19-3 Overall / 3-0 UFC)

Last Three Fights (W-W-W)

Paddy Pimblett looks to continue the tremendous start to his UFC tenure with a fourth straight victory. After three straight wins inside the distance, Paddy has quickly become a fan favorite with his in-octagon performances and infectious personality outside of the cage.

Currently one of the most talked about fighters in the sport, Paddy has made the UFC a ton of money with ticket sales, PPV buys, merch, etc. While Jared Gordon is certainly a tougher opponent than the three previous guys Paddy has faced, the UFC is still giving him relative “lay-up” fights to ensure that they can make as much money off Paddy’s rise.

The fact of the matter is that Paddy’s ceiling in this sport is likely somewhere in the bottom third of the lightweight rankings at best. He is a good precision striker without a ton of power and can grapple at a high level, which is why he should continue to win these fights against unranked opponents.

Paddy is coming off two straight submission victories, which could be the route he takes to try to finish Gordon as well.

Betting Profile: Jared Gordon (19-5 Overall / 7-4 UFC)

Last Three Fights (W-L-W)

Veteran Jared Gordon will look to grab back-to-back wins following his unanimous decision victory over Leonardo Santos. The story of Gordon’s career has been “good but not good enough” as he beats lower-level fighters to earn shots at bigger names but then does not get the job done.

He was submitted by Grant Dawson and knocked out by Charles Oliveira, Joaquim Silva and Diego Ferreira. As he has gotten older, Gordon has tended to avoid grappling in an attempt to just box instead.

Over his last three fights, he has just one takedown. Like Paddy, he is an accurate striker without a ton of power, and he may opt to try to keep this one standing against an opponent who has won two straight fights via submission.

Bottom Line

This fight could go in any direction. I think Paddy will go in with a similar grappling game plan as he has done in each of his last two fights, while Gordon will likely want to keep this fight standing and try to outstrike Paddy on the way to a decision victory.

Either way, Paddy boasts the advantage in this fight. He is the more powerful striker, better submission artist, and grappler.

The one avenue Gordon has is the fact that he is a tad more accurate with his striking. However, Paddy boasts a five-inch reach advantage that will force Gordon to get inside. Once he is more inside, Paddy could knock him out.

Alternatively, Paddy could keep the fight at distance and also try to just rack up points for a decision victory, although I think that is the least likely of these scenarios. Rarely ever is it worth laying over two dollars in juice on a lightweight fight in the UFC, but this is one of those rare occasions where the number is still worth taking at the steep price.

Best Bet: Paddy Pimblett ML (-250)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.