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UFC 282 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

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The final PPV event of the year is officially upon us, as UFC 282 is scheduled for Saturday night from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. We look to close out a red hot end of the year with our free UFC picks, as I’m dialed into three prop bets for this weekend’s UFC 282 action.

Let’s take a closer look.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Raul Rosas Jr. (-230) vs. Jay Perrin (+190)

A recent DWCS graduate also is involved in this fight, but we’re fading him in this spot.  Prior to Raul Rosa Jr.’s victory over Mando Gutierrez in September, making him the promotion’s youngest fighter (17 at the time), he scored five professional wins over opponents with a combined professional record of well below .500.

He faces off against Jay Perrin in his UFC debut, who is eagerly anticipating winning for the first time with the promotion himself.  Perrin has lost two decisions since being signed, the most recent of which was an atrocious one against Aoriquileng, in which he dominated the stats sheet.

I anticipate that Perrin will be too much in this situation for the young “El Nino Problemo.” Though I expect it to take all three rounds, I like for him to get it done.

Bet: Jay Perrin — Decision (+300)

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-170) vs. Chris Daukaus (+145)

The more I look into this fight, the more certain I am that the wrong man is favored. Jairzinho Rosenstruik has dropped three of his five encounters with the UFC, including his most recent two fights coming into this one after a defeat to Francis Ngannou in May 2020. The most concerning of his defeats came in June when Alexander Volkov KO’d him in the opening round, only his second career time being knocked out.

For Daukaus, two consecutive losses — both to killers Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes — have overshadowed his four straight victories to begin his UFC career. However, the gap in the metrics is what sways it for me.

On Saturday, Daukaus holds considerable advantages in striking volume (2.5x), knockdown average (4x), and, maybe most significantly, striking defense. Even though I place less importance on the criteria in this division, I still rank Daukaus as a slight favorite and am jumping on the number the market is providing us.

With an average of 92% of their wins coming inside of the distance, look for a similar result here.

Bet: Chris Daukaus — Inside the Distance (+180 via DraftKings)

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Johnny is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his free UFC picks newsletter and follow him @JohnnyCovers.