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UFC 283: Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill Betting Guide (2023)

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This wasn’t how the light heavyweight division was meant to work itself out.

After defeating Glover Teixeira in June in a fight that was a contender for Fight of the Year, Jiri Prochazka was prepared to face him again for the light heavyweight championship in December. However, that bout was called off due to a severe shoulder injury, and Prochazka gave up the belt.

In its place, Magomed Ankalaev and Jan Bachowicz stepped forward to contest the vacant title in December, surprising almost everyone by fighting to a draw. Teixeira will get another chance to defend his title before that rematch, this time against challenger Jamahal Hill.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 283 Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill: Best Bets

Let’s examine both fighters more closely and how this one might play out.

Betting Profile: Glover Teixeira (33-8-0)

Last Five Fights (L-W-W-W-W)

Teixeira, who was 42 at the time, had to rise through the ranks to defeat Blachowicz for the light heavyweight championship. Teixeira had won five straight matches leading up to the match, defeating opponents inside the distance, including Anthony Smith, Thiago Santos, and Ion Cutelaba.

Teixeira enters this battle with a significant advantage in the grappling department, averaging 1.04 submissions and 2.2 takedowns per 15 minutes inside the octagon. He also has one of the best finishing rates in the history of the promotion, with 85% of his UFC victories occurring inside the final bell.

Betting Profile: Jamahal Hill (11-1-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-L-W)

Hill, who entered the UFC through DWCS in January 2020, has a 5-1-1 record with the organization, including three straight fights going into this one, all by KO/TKO. Hill has actually yet to lose since his first fight with the organization, and almost all of those victories came in the first three rounds.

Hill has the advantage in this contest in both knockdown average per 15 minutes (3x) and the number of important strikes landed per minute (2x). When it comes to grappling in high-level battles, Hill has very little expertise at this level, however, so this is one area where he could run into difficulties.

Bottom Line

Starting as high as -150, we’ve seen Hill’s odds come back down to earth in favor of Tex, and it’s a move I’m in full agreement with. Despite what he’s accomplished so far in this division, he’s yet to face someone in the realm of Tex, and I think we see that lack of experience shines through on Saturday night.

While he might pull it all together, it will take at least 1.5 rounds to get there.

Best Bet: Over 1.5 (-125 via DraftKings)

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