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UFC 283: Lauren Murphy vs. Jessica Andrade Betting Guide (2023)

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It’s an absolute banger of a card this weekend as the UFC makes its way to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for another numbered event. UFC 283 features #2 Glover Teixeira squaring off against #7 Jamahal Hill for the Light Heavyweight title. The co-main event sees the fourth installment of the Flyweight saga between (C) Deiveson Figueiredo and (IC) Brandon Moreno. But first, there’s a women’s clash between #4 Lauren Murphy and #6 Jessica Andrade in the Flyweight division.

UFC 283: Lauren Murphy vs. Jessica Andrade Betting Guide (2023)

Let’s dive into the details of each fighter and get the best bet locked in for Saturday. 

Betting Profile: Lauren Murphy (16-5-0)

Last Five Fights (WLWWW)

Lauren Murphy has been trending in the right direction over the last three-plus years, winning six of her last seven fights. The only blemish on her record since 2019 is a fourth-round knockout at the hands of the mighty Valentina Shevchenko. After the 2021 title loss, Murphy bounced back with a unanimous-decision victory over Miesha Tate. The Alaska native landed a pair of takedowns in the winning effort and outstruck Tate 102-85 over three rounds.

Murphy has recorded a takedown in five of her last six fights, and her wrestling may be a key component to getting her hand raised on Saturday. The 39-year-old veteran is averaging 1.1 takedowns per 15 minutes and executing at a 34% success rate. It’s worth mentioning that she is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. In the striking department, “Lucky Lauren” is landing 3.82 significant strikes per minute at a 40% clip while absorbing 4.45 strikes per minute. 

Betting Profile Jessica Andrade (23-9-0)

Last Five Fights (WWLWL)

Jessica Andrade makes the walk for the first time since April of 2022, a night where she was victorious via an arm triangle submission against Amanda Lemos. It was her second straight win, with the other being a knockout effort against Cynthia Calvillo in September of 2021. Prior to the winning streak, Andrade suffered three losses in four fights, albeit, to some pretty tough competition. The Brazilian native dropped title contests to Shevchenko and Zhang Weili while losing a split decision to another former champion in Rose Namajunas. 

From a statistical standpoint, Jessica Andrade is one of the most active fighters in the promotion. She’s averaging 6.16 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.16. Andrade is also a black belt in BJJ and consistently makes that known. The 31-year-old is averaging 2.85 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing at a 55% rate.

Bottom Line

The oddsmakers don’t expect this to be much of a fight, as Jessica Andrade is currently a -475 betting favorite over Lauren Murphy, who comes back at +380. And I think I have to agree with the sportsbooks here. Andrade is coming into the prime of her career, and she’s way more battle-tested over the last four years compared to Murphy.

This is an opportunity for Andrade to put on a show in front of her home country, and I think she gets the job done before the judges intervene. One thing that stands out to me is that Murphy is absorbing more shots than she’s dishing out (4.45/min vs. 3.84/min). That will not bode well against a fighter like Andrade. Look for the Brazilian to be the aggressor, dominating on the feet, in the clinch and in the grappling game. I simply think that Jessica Andrade will be too much for an aging Lauren Murphy. 

Pick: Jessica Andrade to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+110 via DraftKings)


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