UFC 283 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2023)
UFC 283 will get under this Saturday at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This card features a deep lineup with two title fights set to take place.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are 0.5 units each, or 0.5% of your betting bankroll.
UFC 283 Best Longshot Bets
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Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker
To kick off the main card, there is a light heavyweight bout between the number nine contender Paul Craig and the number 12 contender Johnny Walker. While Craig has won four of his last five fights, it is important to remember that he was just 4-4-1 prior in the UFC prior to his win streak.
However, all good things must come to an end as he lost via unanimous decision in his last fight against Volkan Oezdemir. While Craig has an incredible chin, he is susceptible to allowing himself to take an immense amount of damage as the fight progresses.
This flaw in his game could be the reason he falls to Johnny Walker, a Brazilian who is fighting in front of a home crowd with immense knockout power. With Walker’s approach to fast-paced, violent fights, seven of his last nine bouts did not need the judges’ input.
Walker is massive for this division and carries a ton of power for a light heavyweight. While Craig’s chin could save him in Round One, his weakness of allowing big shots to land could ultimately finish him in round two against the violent Walker.
Pick: Johnny Walker via Round 2 KO/TKO (+550 @ DraftKings)
Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill
In the main event, the vacant light heavyweight title is on the line as Glover Teixeira takes on Jamahal Hill. While Hill’s story and climb of the division is worth rooting for, we must remember that Teixeira was beating Jiri Prochazka in their title fight before tapping in the final 30 seconds of the fifth round.
Jiri is far and away a better fighter than Hill, although Hill possesses some legit knockout power that could end Teixeira’s night at any moment. With that said, Teixeira’s grappling and experience could prove too much for Hill by the end of the night.
Before Hill put away Thiago Santos in his most recent scrap, Santos took him to the mat six times and amassed nearly six minutes of control time. If Teixeira is able to find similar success in the grappling department, it could be a long and frustrating night for Hill.
We saw Teixeira execute this same game plan against violent striker Jared Cannonier, whom Teixeira dominated on the mat en route to a unanimous decision victory. Similarly, he was on his way to defend his belt against Jiri in a similar fashion before Jiri’s miraculous submission.
If Hill goes for the violent knockout early and often, he could lose his gas by the later rounds of the fight and let Teixeira grapple his way into a decision victory.
Pick: Glover Teixeira via Decision (+700 @ DraftKings)
Best of luck!
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