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UFC 283: Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker Betting Guide (2023)

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UFC 283 will get under this Saturday at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This card features a deep lineup with two title fights set to take place.

To kick off the main card, there is a light heavyweight bout between Paul Craig and Johnny Walker. Walker opened up as a -170 favorite before he was bet up to the current price of -190.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this light heavyweight fight. The play below is one unit or 1% of your betting bankroll.

UFC 283 Picks & Best Bets

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Betting Profile: Paul Craig (16-5-1 Overall / 8-5-1 UFC)

Last Five Fights (L-W-W-W-W)

The number nine contender of the light heavyweight division was making some serious noise prior to his underwhelming unanimous decision loss to the number 10 contender, Volkan Oezdemir. Prior to that loss, Paul Craig compiled impressive back-to-back inside the distance victories over Nikita Kyrlov and Jamahal Hill, the latter of which is fighting for the vacant title in Saturday’s main event.

With his overwhelming power and excellent grappling skills, Craig can knockout or submit practically anyone in this division. After a slow start to his UFC tenure, he was propelling himself into the title-fight conversation with four straight wins prior to his loss to Oezdemir.

While many think Craig’s recent loss to Oezdemir means he is more likely the fighter he once was prior to his four-fight win streak, his ability to win via any method makes him a dangerous threat to any opponent.

Betting Profile: Johnny Walker (19-7 Overall / 6-4 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-L-W-L)

The number 12 contender in the light heavyweight division, Johnny Walker gets the opportunity to fight in front of his hometown crowd to kick off the main event. Perhaps one of the more flashier fighters in the sport, Walker is almost always involved in fast-paced, violent fights as seven of his last nine bouts did not need the judges’ input.

While Walker’s power led to a 4-0 start in his UFC tenure, he is just 2-4 over his last six scraps. However, Walker pulled off a stunning submission victory over Ion Cutelaba in his last fight, confirming his willingness to adapt his fight style as he goes against better opponents.

It is essential for Walker to slow down his “wild” style of fighting against the ranked contenders of this division, as a higher fight IQ is a must when you reach that level. That being said, each of his last two losses have come against top-eight contenders, Krylov and Hill, both of whom lost to Craig.

Bottom Line

Unfortunately for Craig, his naysayers might be correct. While he got hot at the right time with his four consecutive wins, his most recent loss to Oezdemir could definitely be a sign that he reached his ceiling in this division.

While I think Walker will once again try to slow down his approach in this fight, his power could ultimately prove too much for Craig, a fighter who absorbs far too many damaging strikes. Fighting in Rio should only help Walker, who could utilize the crowd’s energy to unleash a flurry of strikes that prove too much for the tough Paul Craig.

With a three-inch height and six-inch reach advantage, Walker should be able to keep Craig at distance long enough to land a devastating shot when Craig tries to close that gap. UFC matchmakers love to start the main card with a bout that is likely to end via knockout, which is Walker’s most likely avenue to a victory in this scrap.

Best Bet: Johnny Walker via KO/TKO/DQ (-125)

Best of luck!


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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.