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UFC 284: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Bets & Picks (2023)

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It’s an absolutely stacked card this weekend as the UFC heads down under for another numbered event. UFC 284 is set to take place from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, where Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski will look to become a double champ in the Lightweight division. Islam Makhachev will be the man in his way as the Russian makes his first title defense after securing the strap in October 2022.

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Best Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Bets

Let’s dive into each fighter’s recent history, strengths, and weaknesses and get a best bet locked in!

Betting Profile: Islam Makhachev (23-1-0)

Last Five Fights (WWWWW)

Islam Makhachev claimed the vacant Lightweight belt when he submitted Charles Oliveira late last year. The second-round victory was his 11th straight win, and the Russian doesn’t discriminate when it comes to the method of victory. Over the 11-fight sample, he’s racked up five submissions, four decision wins, and a pair of knockouts.

From the statistical standpoint, Makhachev’s certainly reliant on his grappling skills, where he averages 3.42 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has a 65% success rate. As for his fighting background, the 31-year-old is ranked as an International Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. In the striking department, Makhachev is landing 2.37 significant strikes per minute at a 59% clip while absorbing just 0.95 strikes per minute.

Betting Profile: Alexander Volkanovski (25-1-0)

Last Five Fights (WWWWW)

Alexander Volkanovski is a perfect 12-0 in his UFC career, notching four wins via knockout and the rest coming by decision. He secured the Featherweight belt in late 2019, beating Max Holloway in a unanimous decision. Volk has made four successful defenses since that night, beating Holloway twice more and sprinkling in wins over Brian Ortega and The Korean Zombie in between. What’s been most impressive about the run that “Alexander the Great” is on is his striking. He’s landed at least 130 significant strikes in all five title fights, including a career-high 214 landed against Ortega in 2021.

The high volume of output has always been Volkanovski’s style, as he’s landing 6.79 significant strikes per minute at a 57% success rate. Defensively, he’s absorbing 3.53 strikes per minute. The Australian has a background in wrestling and boasts a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. In terms of his stats, he’s landing 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 36% clip while defending 73% of opposing takedown attempts.

Bottom Line

The oddsmakers don’t see this being much of a fight, considering they have Makhachev listed as a -380 favorite. Volkanovski comes back at +310 to get his hand raised. In my opinion, this fight is way tighter in terms of skill level. But I have to wonder, what is Volkanovski’s route to victory here? Typically, it seems he’s content with riding it out five rounds and taking it to the judges’ scorecards while occasionally mixing in a knockout here and there. However, he’ll be tasked with defending one of the more dominant wrestlers and submission artists for 25 minutes on Saturday night.

Volk’s grappling skills have obviously held up throughout his career, but I think Makhachev is on another level in terms of his ground game. He’s rag-dolled the whole division en route to capturing the belt.

Personally, I’m a big fan of Volkanovski and wanted to craft an argument for him to become the double champ, but I’m hesitant to say he’ll be able to defend against Makhachev’s insane grappling for a full 25 minutes. I think the Russian will land several takedowns throughout the fight before ultimately locking in a submission. I’m rolling with Islam Makhachev to defend his Lightweight title and do it via submission.

Pick: Islam Makhachev To Win By Submission (+165 via DraftKings)

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