UFC 284 Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Prediction, Odds & Picks (2023)
Now, this is what you call a Super Fight.
Saturday night (Sunday) in Australia, featherweight champion and #1 pound-for-pound in the world, Alexander Volkanovski, will put his latter ranking on the line in a lightweight bout against champion (and #2 PFP) Islam Makhachev. With one professional loss each, both of these fighters have made relatively light work of their UFC competition, as the winner will justly be crowned the best fighter in the promotion.
Does the smaller Volkanovski have what it takes to overcome the massive odds? Let’s take a closer look.
UFC Fight Night Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski: Best Bets
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Betting Profile: Islam Makhachev (23-1-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
The former disciple of the great Khabib, Islam joined the UFC in 2015, largely dominating his early opponents. Starting in 2021, Islam’s dominance kicked into high gear, rattling off four straight inside-the-distance wins before drawing Charles Oliveira in October for the lightweight title.
And he claimed in a decisive fashion.
With no one in the division stepping up, or potentially at Islam’s choice, he welcomes Volkanovski to the weight class for this clash, which takes place at lightweight.
From a metrics standpoint, Islam has edges almost across the board, with slightly better striking accuracy and absorbing just 25% of the shots of his opponent. On the ground, however, is where the big edges lie. The edges are massive, specifically in submission average per 15 minutes (6x), takedown average (3x), and takedown accuracy (2x).
Betting Profile: Alexander Volkanovski (25-1-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
Joining the UFC in 2016, Volkanovski steadily got better in every appearance, winning seven straight before getting his title shot in December 2019 against then-champ Max Holloway. Beating Holloway by decision, Volk went on to defend his title four more times, two of which came against Holloway.
With no one left in the division to challenge him, Volk will attempt to join rare company in becoming a two-division champion at the same time. If he does it, it’ll almost certainly have to be in the striking department, where he does hold an edge in significant strikes landed per minute at nearly 3x his opponent.
Bottom Line
While Volkanovski is an absolute savage, proved further by even taking this fight, I think Islam wins this one with relative ease. As we saw when Isreal Adesanya went up to try and fight light heavyweight, these classes exist for a reason, and I think this is just too big of a jump up.
Having the home crowd behind him will certainly help, but in the end, I do think Islam gets this one done inside the distance via submission.
Best Bet: Islam Makhachev (-390 via DraftKings)
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