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UFC 285 Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett: Bets & Predictions (2023)

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The #1 Heavyweight contender Ciryl Gane and the former Light Heavyweight champion Jon Jones will square off in a heavyweight bout for the vacant undisputed title when this weekend at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the co-main, the longest-reigning women’s flyweight champion in UFC history, Valentina Shevchenko, defends her 125-pound championship against Mexico’s Alexa Grasso.

Before either of those fights go off, however, there is another fight on the main card that fight fans everywhere have long awaited. Let’s take a closer look at the highly anticipated Bo Nickal debut vs. Jamie Pickett in one of my top UFC predictions for UFC 285.

UFC 285: Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Betting Profile: Bo Nickal (3-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W)

It’s a massive understatement to say Nickal is a phenomenally skilled wrestler. Thus his abilities alone may propel him far up the ranks. Before he was known to most UFC fans, for years, he has been an important training partner for top fighters at American Top Team. On day 1 in the UFC, he already presents a well-rounded, composed danger to any 185-pound athlete.

Of Nickal’s wrestling accomplishments, the three-time national champion is the simplest to comprehend, but it only scratches the surface. He is undoubtedly one of the most gifted wrestlers to ever compete inside the Octagon, but in addition to that, he has demonstrated smooth submissions, good distance control, and inherent striking power in just a few fights we’ve seen him.

Betting Profile: Jamie Picket (13-8-0)

Last Five Fights (L-L-W-W-L)

In contrast, Pickett doesn’t quite enjoy the same level of publicity. Just two out of his six visits to the Octagon have resulted in victories for the Contenders Series product, and he now comes in a huge underdog in this fight.

Compared to his opponent, Pickett doesn’t have the same depth of experience in any one combat sport. His back is to the wall in this situation, and he is undoubtedly more of a generalist. He has previously been ground out by less skilled grapplers, and at 34 years old, he is unlikely to suddenly improve dramatically.

But he can at least try the strategies that have been shown to be effective when facing young wrestlers with talent. In particular, cage positioning and footwork are everything.

Bottom Line

Picket’s game plan coming in has to make Nickal put in a lot of effort just to touch him, much less reach out and grasp a leg. The moment a shot is dodged is the perfect opportunity to counter with a combo. While he likely does lose inside the distance, I think there’s value in him getting out of the first round.

Best Bet: Fight Starts Second Round – Yes (+170 via DraftKings)

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Johnny is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his free UFC picks newsletter and follow him @JohnnyCovers.