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UFC 285 Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov: Picks & Bets

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UFC 285 gets underway this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features an incredibly deep lineup with two epic title fights set to take place.

Prior to the two title fights, there is a welterweight bout between Geoff Neal and Shavkat Rakhmonov. A massive up-and-comer and likely future title holder, Rakhmonov opened up as a -435 favorite and has since been bet up to his current price of -500.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this welterweight bout. The play below is one unit or 1% of your betting bankroll.

UFC 285 Best Bet for Neal vs. Rakhmonov 

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Betting Profile: Geoff Neal (15-4 Overall / 8-2 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-L-L-W)

The current number seven contender in the welterweight division, Geoff Neal, is out to prove his doubters wrong. An extremely underrated fighter, Neal is extremely talented but has probably reached his ceiling with a mid-table ranking among the elites of the welterweight division.

Starting off with a 6-0 record in the UFC, Neal fought guys he should have beaten, having been favored in all six of those fights (Belal Muhammad was not nearly as talented when Neal beat him as he is now). Since then, Neal is just 2-2 with wins over Vicente Luque (current No. 9 contender in the division) and Santiago Ponzinibbio (unranked).

His two losses during that stretch came against Stephen Thompson (No. 6) and Neil Magny (No. 12). Preferring to stand-and-bang, Neal is much more comfortable on the feet. He typically tries to avoid the mat, which is going to be an area of concern against the prolific Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Betting Profile: Shavkat Rakhmonov (16-0 Overall / 4-0 UFC)

Last Four Fights: (W-W-W-W)

Starting off his UFC journey with four straight finishes, Shavkat Rakhmonov looks like he has all the makings of a future champion in the division. As alluded to above, Rakhmonov is a prolific fighter who utilizes every aspect of MMA, making him a dangerous opponent.

He is not the most voluminous of strikers, but he carries a good deal of power with pinpoint precision. Even more dangerous than Rakhmonov’s striking is his grappling and wrestling.

A “Master of Sport” in Combat Sambo, Rakhmonov shows immense strength in the wrestling department with a knack for finding the neck of his opponents with relative ease. Three of those four wins came via submission, two of which were guillotine chokes, while the other was a rear naked choke.

Zooming out to Rakhmonov’s entire body of professional work is where things just get absurd. Not only is he 16-0, but 15 of those wins came inside the distance.

Bottom Line

Geoff Neal really only has a puncher’s chance against Rakhmonov, evidenced by the -500 betting line on the favorite. That fact is much more of a compliment to Rakhmonov’s potential in this sport than it is an indictment on Neal’s ability in the octagon.

Neal is very talented and finds himself among the top 10 in the world at his weight class, but even at the top, there are levels to this sport, and Rakhmonov is simply on a different one. Even though Rakhmonov boasts 15 finishes over his 16 professional wins, we are going to back him to take care of business after 1.5 rounds.

Rakhmonov’s camp knows that Neal absolutely does not want this fight on the mat, which is why that will almost certainly be Rakhmonov’s game plan. Fights going to the mat is good for the underdog surviving the first 1.5 rounds, especially if Rakhmonov just relies on top position and dominant wrestling to rack up points.

Having never been finished in the UFC, Neal is certainly capable of lasting to at least the back half of the second round like Neil Magny did in his loss to Rakhmonov. Across Neal’s four professional losses, none came before the third round.

Best Bet: Shavkat Rakhmonov & Over 1.5 Rounds (+128 via BetRivers)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.