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UFC 285 Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner: Bets & Picks (2023)

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The UFC makes its return to the Fight Capital of the World this weekend as Jon Jones squares off against Ciryl Gane for the Heavyweight Championship. It’s a stacked card from top to bottom, featuring two title fights and four additional ranked bouts.

One of those ranked tilts is a banger in the Lightweight Division with seventh-ranked Mateusz Gamrot taking on 10th-ranked Jalin Turner. Let’s dive into this main card showdown and get a best bet locked in.

Best UFC 285 Bet for Gamrot vs. Turner

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Betting Profile: Mateusz Gamrot (21-2-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights (LWWWW)

Mateusz Gamrot had his four-fight win streak snapped when he stepped into the octagon back in October. It was a unanimous decision defeat at the hands of Beneil Dariush, where Gamrot was outstruck 59-33. “Gamer” Gamrot landed four takedowns in the fight but managed just 2:07 worth of ground control time. Previously, the Polish-born brawler collected wins over Scott Holtzman (KO/TKO), Jeremy Stephens (Kimura), Diego Ferreira (KO/TKO), and Arman Tsarukyan (U-DEC). He’s now 4-2 in the UFC and boasts an impressive 21-2 professional record.

The 32-year-old relies heavily on his wrestling background, using it to secure 4.66 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s landing at a 31% success rate while defending 90% of opposing attempts. It’s also worth mentioning that Gamrot boasts a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. In the striking department, Gamrot’s averaging 3.26 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.34 strikes.

Betting Profile: Jalin Turner (13-5-0)

Last Five Fights (WWWWW)

Jalin Turner continues to climb the Lightweight rankings as he’s riding a five-fight win streak and sits at 7-2 overall in the promotion. Most recently, it was a brief endeavor against Brad Miller in which Turner smoked Miller with an early right hand and quickly locked in a guillotine, forcing him to tap just 45 seconds into the fight. It was the American’s third submission win (read naked choke x2) in his last four fights.

Turner boasts an insane striking output, collecting 6.48 significant strikes per minute (47%) while absorbing 4.31 per minute. Turner has a limited background in wrestling, although he’s not nearly as accomplished as some of the competitors in the UFC. Due to injuries throughout his youth, he wasn’t able to participate competitively. However, he’s still landing 80% of his takedown attempts and securing 1.14 of them on average over 15 minutes. Defensively, Turner’s defending 77% of opposing attempts.

Bottom Line

Stylistically, this is a great fight that pits a fantastic grappler in Mateusz Gamrot against a lengthy, well-rounded brawler in Jalin Turner. The oddsmakers side with the higher-ranked Gamrot (-215) to get his hand raised, while Turner comes back at +185 on the moneyline.

Turner has a pretty large advantage in this matchup in terms of his size, holding an edge in height (6’ 3” vs. 5’ 10”), reach (77” vs. 70.5”), and leg reach (46” vs. 39”). I think that’s going to make life difficult for Gamrot, as he’ll be looking to close the gap and utilize his wrestling skills. I mean, this is a significant advantage in reach that can really benefit Turner. Even if Gamrot does get position on a takedown attempt, we often see the wide base and height of taller fighters cause issues for the attacker to fully finish the takedown.

Ultimately, I think this is a nightmare matchup for Gamrot. And to Turner’s defense, he’s not the 10th-ranked fighter in the division solely because of his height. This guy’s a scrapper, seeing all seven of his UFC wins come inside the distance (4 KO, 3 SUB). The +185 payout is too good to pass up, so I’ll back the American to pull off the upset.

Pick: Jalin Turner Moneyline (+185 via DraftKings)

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