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UFC 285 Prelims: Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Jon Jones, a former light heavyweight champion, will finally attempt to win the heavyweight title this Saturday when he squares up against Ciryl Gane inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, after spending more than three years on the sidelines. At UFC 285 in the co-main, Flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko will defend her title against Mexican powerhouse Alexa Grasso.

As of Tuesday evening, nine undercard fights are included in UFC 285 this time, with Fight Pass and ESPN+ covering the action. Let’s take a closer look at my top UFC predictions before the main card gets underway.

Top 3 Prelim Bets for UFC 285

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Da’Mon Blackshear (+330) vs. Farid Basharat (-410)

The market definitely favors Basharat in this matchup between two UFC rookies, but I’m taking a slightly different approach with this handicap. While both men enter with one UFC fight each (Basharat was officially a DWCS fight), both of which went the full three rounds, and I believe there is some recency bias at work in the total rounds market.

Starting with Blackshear, five of his previous six victories were achieved through submission. For Bashrat, who is 9-0 and has dispatched six of his first eight opponents inside three rounds, the situation is similar.

In their professional careers, these two have combined to win 71% of the time inside the circle. This one ends early.

Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds (+140 via DraftKings)

Jessica Penne (-250) vs. Tabatha Ricci (-250)

Only two victories since 2014 portray the picture of a fighter tormented by illness and injuries for the 40-year-old Penne, a former strawweight title contender, who has spent the majority of her time away from the octagon. Since joining the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter, Penne has been the epitome of unreliability, having had nine bouts called off and just six actual UFC fights.

For “Baby Shark” Ricci, a 2021 defeat to Fiorot in his UFC debut was followed by two victories in a six-month period. Given that the strawweight class in the UFC is among the least competitive, a third victory here would likely propel her into the top 15.

While the competition is close on the ground, Ricci has significant advantages in terms of striking defense, takedown averages (3x), and takedown accuracy (2x).

Bet: Tabatha Ricci (-250 via DraftKings)

Derek Brunson (+200) vs. Dricus du Plessis (-240)

Apart from Brunson’s 89% takedown defense, du Plessis consistently outperforms his opponent, especially in the areas of significant strikes landed per minute (2x), submission averages (2x), striking accuracy, and takedown effectiveness.

With two fights in the last seven months, du Plessis has fought twice and, at 29, has a significant advantage in terms of youth and age. The 39-year-old Brunson will experience some ring rust on Saturday as well because he hasn’t competed in over a year and lost to Jared Cannonier in the second round of that fight.

Bet: Dricus du Plessis – Inside the Distance (-160 via DraftKings)

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Johnny is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his free UFC picks newsletter and follow him @JohnnyCovers.