UFC 286 Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena: Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Tony Sartori |
Mar 17, 2023

UFC 286 gets underway this Saturday at the O2 Arena in London, England. This card features a deep lineup with an epic trilogy fight in store for the welterweight title.

Prior to that, there is an exciting welterweight bout on the main card between Gunnar Nelson and Bryan Barberena. Nelson opened up as a -375 favorite and has since been bet up to his current price of -385.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this welterweight bout.

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UFC 285 Best Bet for Nelson vs. Barberena

(The play below is for 1u or 1% of your betting bankroll)

Betting Profile: Gunnar Nelson (18-5-1 Overall / 9-5 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-L-W-L)

Gunnar Nelson is just 2-3 over his last five fights, with a submission victory, a decision victory, two decision losses and a loss via knockout. However, his last two losses came at the hands of current champion Leon Edwards and the No. 5 welterweight contender Gilbert Burns.

That loss to Edwards came via a split decision, although most people would agree that Edwards unanimously won that scrap. With that in mind, it is still impressive that Nelson â€œbeatâ€ the current champion on one judgeâ€™s scorecard, which is a product of his impressive grappling.

Nelson is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, which often comes in handy for the veteran. In his latest win over Takashi Sato, Nelson landed all three of his takedown attempts while recording a dominating eight minutes of control time en route to an effortless victory.

Each of Nelsonâ€™s prior six victories before Sato all came via submission. As a betting favorite, Nelson is 8-3.

Betting Profile: Bryan Barberena (18-9 Overall / 9-7 UFC)

Last Five Fights: (L-W-W-W-L)

Bryan Barberena is just 4-4 over his last eight bouts, with three decision victories, one knockout, three inside-the-distance losses and one loss via decision. Taking advantage against a relatively easier stretch of opponents recently, all four of those losses occurred when Barberena was priced as the betting underdog.

Preferring to stand-and-bang, Barberena has not landed a single takedown in any of his previous 13 fights. However, he struggles mightily against grappling specialists, which should spell trouble on Saturday.

In Barberenaâ€™s latest loss, Rafael Dos Anjos landed four of his six takedown attempts and accumulated over six minutes of control time before winning via submission in the second round. Jason Witt, who beat Barberena before the Dos Anjos fight, landed eight of 18 takedown attempts and racked up over five minutes of control time.

Bottom Line

Styles make fights, and these contrasting styles are the main factor as to why Nelson is laying nearly four dollars on the moneyline. Barberena struggles against grappling specialists, while Nelson typically dominates those whom he brings to the mat.

A grappler without a ton of power, Nelson has zero knockouts since joining the UFC with just one knockdown. Additionally, Barberena possesses a solid chin and has only been knocked out twice in the UFC.

However, the unexpected often becomes the norm in MMA. Just in case Nelson can catch Barberena or even win via ground and pound, it is worth taking his inside-the-distance prop instead of backing Nelson to win via submission, a price difference of just 29 cents.

Best Bet: Gunnar Nelson Inside the Distance (-104 via BetRivers)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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