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UFC 286 Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev: Odds & Picks (2023)

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Rafael Fiziev and Justin Gaethje will square off in the co-main event of UFC 286: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3, in what is arguably the more anticipated fight of the two.  The contest features a fascinating combination of styles between the No. 3 lightweight contender and the No. 6 fighter as Fiziev looks to break into the top five with a big win here in London.

While there are plenty of fights on this UFC 286 card with value, let’s take a closer look at both of these fighters and how this one might play out.

UFC 286: Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Betting Profile: Justin Gaethje (23-4-0)

Last Five Fights (L-W-L-W-W)

Gaethje, who was defeated by Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira by first-round submission, will attempt to recover against “Ataman” after failing to capture the lightweight title for a second time. All four of Justin Gaethje’s losses, however, are to champions or reigning champions Eddie Alvarez, Dustin Poirier, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Charles Oliveira, and he comes into this fight with a record of 23-4.

After defeating Tony Ferguson via technical knockout in 2020, Gaethje served as the UFC Lightweight division’s interim champion. It was the last time he had won through KO/TKO, which is his preferred strategy by far. Nineteen of his 23 victories occurred in this manner; the other two came via submission and decision.

Betting Profile: Rafael Fiziev (12-1-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

As he gets ready for the biggest fight of his career, Fiziev is in fantastic shape and surging at exactly the right time. With a six-fight winning streak under his belt and five prior appearances in which he received a Fight or Performance of the Night bonus, the No. 6 lightweight might match Gaethje’s theatrics in this matchup.

Throughout his professional MMA career, Rafael Fiziev is 12-1, with his sole defeat coming in his UFC debut, a TKO loss to Magomed Mustafaev. He won six fights in a row after that, three of which earned him the Performance of the Night bonus. Furthermore, he twice took home the Performance of the Night bonus.

Bottom Line

The best example of the Azerbaijani fighter’s skills has become somewhat viral via social media, as his ability to avoid a strike is second to none.  He tends to throw a lot of punches and has a respectable strike defense to back them up. In addition to one submission victory and two decisions, he has eight KO/TKO victories out of a possible twelve.

While I’m a big fan of Gaethje myself, I’m not sure he has the skill of Fiziev, and I see this one going the way of the younger fighter as he sets himself up for a title shot later this year.

Best Bet: Fiziev Wins Inside the Distance (+110 via DraftKings)

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