Navigate

UFC 286 Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman Picks & Predictions (2023)

by |

The UFC heads across the pond this weekend to the O2 Arena in London, United Kingdom. UFC 286 is a stacked card from top to bottom, including four ranked bouts. But, all roads lead to the conclusion of the trilogy between first-time defending champion Leon Edwards and former champion Kamaru Usman.

Let’s dive deeper into this Welterweight Title bout and lock in a best bet.

Best UFC 286 Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Betting Guide: Leon Edwards (20-3-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights (WWWWW)

Rocky was down and out in the August meeting between these two welterweights, but he never lost his composure, ultimately landing an insane head kick with 56 seconds to go in the final round of the fight. The knockout victory over Kamaru Usman earned Leon Edwards the division’s belt, which hadn’t switched hands since March 2019. Furthermore, Edwards got his revenge on Usman, who bested him in a unanimous decision affair back in 2015.

The Englishman hasn’t lost since that day in 2015, only collecting a no-contest against Belal Muhammad in 2021. Aside from that, Edwards has rattled off 10 straight victories in the UFC octagon.

Statistically, the champ is landing 2.59 significant strikes per minute while absorbing a modest 2.28 strikes. He’s relatively active in the takedown department, securing 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes. Rocky is landing at a 33% clip while successfully defending 68% of opposing takedown tries. Finally, it’s worth noting that Edwards is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Betting Guide: Kamaru Usman (20-2-0)

Last Five Fights (LWWWW)

The former champion fought a very technical fight against Edwards in the August affair, and if you ask most people, he dominated all but the final three seconds of the bout. The stats would back that up as Kamaru Usman outstruck him 83-55 while landing five takedowns to his one. Unfortunately, he just happened to get caught by the greatest comeback knockout kick that the promotion has ever seen. The defeat snapped The Nigerian Nightmare’s 15-fight win streak, which included five successful title defenses since he claimed the belt from Tyron Woodley in 2019.

Usman is a black belt in BJJ as well as an accomplished wrestler. He won an NCAA Division II wrestling championship in 2010 after a 44-1 campaign on the mats. He’s very active in the grappling game, landing 3.01 takedowns per 15 minutes of work. Usman’s landing at a 48% success rate while fending off 97% of opposing attempts. Interestingly, Edwards was the first person to ever complete a takedown against Usman in the August bout. As for his striking, the former champ lands 4.55 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.56 strikes.

Bottom Line

This should be a fantastic Welterweight Title fight that sees Usman travel to Edwards’ home country of the United Kingdom as he tries to reclaim his belt. The oddsmakers lean heavily on Usman completing the feat, offering as a -240 betting favorite. Edwards comes back as a +200 underdog to get his hand raised on Saturday night.

While the Englishman was able to land that unfathomable head kick with under a minute left last time out, I can’t imagine lightning will strike the same place twice in this one. Most people, myself included, would’ve ended up scoring those fights 50-45 should Usman have made it the full 25 minutes.

While I don’t want to take anything away from Edwards, as he won fair and square, Usman is still the more well-rounded fighter. With The Nigerian Nightmare still having a massive edge in the wrestling department, I’m expecting another technical domination in this one. Rocky has never been knocked out or submitted inside the final horn, so I’ll roll with Usman to get his hand raised via the judges’ scorecards.

Pick: Kamaru Usman To Win By Decision (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts