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UFC 286 Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze: Picks & Predictions (2023)

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UFC 286 gets underway this Saturday at the O2 Arena in London. This card features a deep lineup with an epic trilogy fight in store for the welterweight title.

To kick off the main card, there is an exciting middleweight bout between Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze. Vettori opened up as a -270 favorite and has since been bet up to his current price of -280.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this middleweight bout. The play below is one unit or one percent of your betting bankroll.

UFC 286 Best Bet for Vettori vs. Dolidze

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Betting Profile: Marvin Vettori (18-6-1 Overall / 8-4-1 UFC)

Last Five Fights (L-W-L-W-W)

The story of Vettori’s UFC career is “good but not good enough”. He beats the guys he is supposed to on his rise up the middleweight ladder, but once he gets to the top, he has been unable to get it done.

Going 3-2 over his last five fights, he boasts impressive victories over Paulo Costa, Kevin Holland, and Jack Hermansson, However, over that stretch, he lost his title shot to Israel Adesnaya and is coming directly off his loss to the number two contender, Robert Whittaker.

Both of those losses came via unanimous decision, a common trend across Vettori’s career due to his iron chin and strong grappling ability. As is typically the case for guys in similar roles to Vettori, it looks as though he will turn into the divisional gatekeeper between the elites and risers of the middleweights.

Betting Profile: Roman Dolidze (12-1 Overall / 6-1 UFC)

Last Five Fights: (W-W-W-W-L)

Boasting an impressive 12-1 professional record, Roman Dolidze comes into this scrap amidst a four-fight win streak. Possessing crazy power, Dolidze boasts three straight knockout wins over the likes of Jack Hermansson, Phil Hawes, and Kyle Daukaus.

However, an underrated part of Dolidze’s game is his ability to scramble and find the neck during grappling exchanges. This skill will be essential against Vettori, an intelligent fighter who likely will try to turn this bout into a grappling match to avoid Dolidze’s reach and power.

Bottom Line

While I think Vettori should be favored and is more likely to win this fight, he should not be laying nearly three dollars on the moneyline against the surging Dolidze. There are too many avenues to victory for the underdog, someone who I made around the +150 to +200 range.

With his power, Dolidze could catch Vettori at any time. But, with Vettori’s strong chin and his grappling game plan, we could also see Dolidze lock in a submission off his back, something he almost did numerous times in his latest win over Jack Hermansson.

Ultimately, I think Vettori’s IQ and chin will likely save him in this fight, but +240 is far too good of a price to pass up on Dolidze.

Best Bet: Roman Dolidze ML (+240 via DraftKings)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.