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UFC 286 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2023)

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UFC 286 gets underway this Saturday at the O2 Arena in London. This card features a deep lineup with an epic trilogy fight in store for the welterweight title.

Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are 0.5 units and 1 unit, or 0.5% and 1% of your betting bankroll.

UFC 286 Best Longshot Bets

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Jack Shore vs. Makwan Amirkhani

We have a featherweight bout between Jack Shore and Makwan Amirkhani to cap off the preliminary card. The current number 15 contender in the bantamweight division, Shore is moving back up to featherweight for the first time since 2017.

A big-time prospect, Shore boasts a dominating 16-1 professional record and is a former Cage Warriors bantamweight champion. Of those 16 wins, 12 have come inside-the-distance as he possesses a terrific all-around game in MMA and can beat you both on the feet and the mat.

While Shore is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, his boxing is just as impressive. Since joining the UFC, he has landed 3.96 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy.

His striking defense is also strong, absorbing just 2.34 significant strikes per minute at a 57% defensive rate. This boxing could spell early disaster for Amirkhani, who possesses a weak chin.

Entering this bout in poor form, “Mr. Finland” has lost five of his last seven fights. Of those five losses, three have come via knockout.

A -500 favorite, Shore is priced heavily due to the fact that he is better than Amirkhani in practically every aspect of MMA. With the disparity in talent level between these two, look for Shore to get back on track with a knockout win in the first round.

Pick: Jack Shore via KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+525 via BetRivers) – 0.5 units

Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze

The story of Vettori’s UFC career is “good but not good enough”. He beats the guys he is supposed to on his rise up the middleweight ladder, but once he gets to the top, he has been unable to get it done.

Going 3-2 over his last five fights, he boasts impressive victories over Paulo Costa, Kevin Holland, and Jack Hermansson, However, over that stretch, he lost his title shot to Israel Adesnaya and is coming directly off his loss to the number two contender, Robert Whittaker.

Both of those losses came via unanimous decision, a common trend across Vettori’s career due to his iron chin and strong grappling ability. As is typically the case for guys in similar roles to Vettori, it looks as though he will turn into the divisional gatekeeper between the elites and risers of the middleweights.

Boasting an impressive 12-1 professional record, Roman Dolidze comes into this scrap amidst a four-fight win streak. Possessing crazy power, Dolidze boasts three straight knockout wins over the likes of Jack Hermansson, Phil Hawes, and Kyle Daukaus.

However, an underrated part of Dolidze’s game is his ability to scramble and find the neck during grappling exchanges. This skill will be essential against Vettori, an intelligent fighter who likely will try to turn this bout into a grappling match to avoid Dolidze’s reach and power.

With his power, Dolidze could catch Vettori at any time. But, with Vettori’s strong chin and his grappling game plan, we could also see Dolidze lock in a submission off his back, something he almost did numerous times in his latest win over Jack Hermansson.

Ultimately, I think Vettori’s IQ and chin will likely save him in this fight, but +240 is far too good of a price to pass up on Dolidze.

Pick: Roman Dolidze ML (+230 via DraftKings) – 1 unit

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.