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UFC 286 Usman vs. Edwards: Best Bets & Picks (3/18)

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The UFC heads across the pond this weekend to the O2 Arena in London, United Kingdom. UFC 286 is a stacked card from top to bottom, including four ranked bouts. But, all roads lead to the conclusion of the trilogy between first-time defending champion Leon Edwards and former champion Kamaru Usman. Here are our top picks for Saturday’s event.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

UFC 286 Usman vs. Edwards: Odds & Predictions

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev

The best example of the Azerbaijani fighter’s skills has become somewhat viral via social media, as his ability to avoid a strike is second to none.  He tends to throw a lot of punches and has a respectable strike defense to back them up. In addition to one submission victory and two decisions, he has eight KO/TKO victories out of a possible twelve.

While I’m a big fan of Gaethje myself, I’m not sure he has the skill of Fiziev, and I see this one going the way of the younger fighter as he sets himself up for a title shot later this year.

Best Bet: Fiziev Wins Inside the Distance (+110 via DraftKings)

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman

This should be a fantastic Welterweight Title fight that sees Usman travel to Edwards’ home country of the United Kingdom as he tries to reclaim his belt. The oddsmakers lean heavily on Usman completing the feat, offering as a -240 betting favorite. Edwards comes back as a +200 underdog to get his hand raised on Saturday night.

While the Englishman was able to land that unfathomable head kick with under a minute left last time out, I can’t imagine lightning will strike the same place twice in this one. Most people, myself included, would’ve ended up scoring those fights 50-45 should Usman have made it the full 25 minutes.

While I don’t want to take anything away from Edwards, as he won fair and square, Usman is still the more well-rounded fighter. With The Nigerian Nightmare still having a massive edge in the wrestling department, I’m expecting another technical domination in this one. Rocky has never been knocked out or submitted inside the final horn, so I’ll roll with Usman to get his hand raised via the judges’ scorecards.

Pick: Kamaru Usman To Win By Decision (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

UFC 286 Edwards vs. Usman: Parlay Picks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Leg 1: Joanne Wood Moneyline (-175)

Joanne Wood is 37, eight years older than her opponent, Luana Carolina, but is fighting the best of the best. Wood is 1-4 in her last five fights and does not have an attractive record at first glance, but she has been fighting the elite competition for years. Carolina is 3-2 in the UFC, but her wins have not aged well. Carolina will have a four-inch reach advantage, but Wood has more experience, which should be the difference.

Wood lands 6.76 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.54 strikes per minute. Carolina lands 4.64 strikes and absorbs 3.55 strikes per minute. Carolina has never landed a takedown in the UFC but defends 82% of them. In her latest fight against Molly McCann, she was taken down twice and controlled for four and a half minutes before being knocked out in the third round. Wood should borrow from McCann’s game plan and employ her wrestling to make Carolina gas out. This fight will be competitive when standing, but if Wood secures some takedowns and control time, it could open more opportunities on the feet.

Leg 2: Muhammad Mokaev Moneyline (-850)

Mokaev is one of the young prospects from the UK fighting on this card, and he is entertaining to watch. He is 22 years old and has a 9-0 record, with three victories in the UFC. His opponent, Jafel Filho, is making his UFC debut after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. Filho draws a difficult matchup for his debut but deserves credit for accepting the fight against Mokaev, the boogeyman in the flyweight division that nobody wants to fight.

Mokaev averages 8.88 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has submitted two of his three UFC opponents. He is dominant on the mat and controlling position. He gained 10 minutes of control time off six takedowns in his last fight and landed 119 of 130 total strikes. Filho does not have many stats available but was controlled for over two minutes in his previous bout despite stuffing his opponent’s takedown. Mokaev should win easily against Filho on Saturday and potentially move into the top 10 of the flyweight division.

Leg 3: Kamaru Usman Moneyline (-240)

Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman will fight for the third time this weekend. Both men have a win against each other, but Usman has won more rounds against Edwards. Kamaru was ahead 39-37 on all three scorecards before getting knocked out in the final round of their previous matchup. The altitude at Salt Lake City certainly played a role in that fight, but Edwards still managed to land a spectacular head kick despite being more tired than usual. Edwards should be more competitive in this fight, but Usman will be more motivated and prepared.

Edwards will likely have to beat Usman at his own game this weekend. He landed a takedown in the first round of the last fight but was controlled heavily by Usman in the next three rounds. Usman landed 189 total strikes compared to 64 for Edwards. He accumulated over 10 minutes of control time over Edwards, which will be the deciding factor this weekend. Edwards needs to be in control to win this fight, and he will have trouble doing that for five rounds. Usman should win via decision despite Edwards being in front of his home crowd. As Edwards showed last time, anything can happen, but Usman has a safer path to victory. 

Parlay Odds: +148

Check out all of our picks for UFC 286:

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