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UFC 286 Usman vs. Edwards Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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The UFC is returning to the O2 Arena in London for Leon Edwards’ first title defense. Kamaru Usman wanted the rematch after losing dramatically last year and will have to travel across the pond this time. The card is full of young, exciting prospects from the United Kingdom, and the crowd is always top-notch in London. The co-main event between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev will electrify the arena with the main event for the welterweight belt to follow. The early prelims will start at 1 p.m. EDT, the prelims begin at 3 p.m. EDT, and the main card starts at 5 p.m. EDT on ESPN+ PPV.

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2023 total: Down 7 units

UFC 286 Edwards vs. Usman: Parlay Picks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Leg 1: Joanne Wood Moneyline (-175)

Joanne Wood is 37, eight years older than her opponent, Luana Carolina, but is fighting the best of the best. Wood is 1-4 in her last five fights and does not have an attractive record at first glance, but she has been fighting the elite competition for years. Carolina is 3-2 in the UFC, but her wins have not aged well. Carolina will have a four-inch reach advantage, but Wood has more experience, which should be the difference.

Wood lands 6.76 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.54 strikes per minute. Carolina lands 4.64 strikes and absorbs 3.55 strikes per minute. Carolina has never landed a takedown in the UFC but defends 82% of them. In her latest fight against Molly McCann, she was taken down twice and controlled for four and a half minutes before being knocked out in the third round. Wood should borrow from McCann’s game plan and employ her wrestling to make Carolina gas out. This fight will be competitive when standing, but if Wood secures some takedowns and control time, it could open more opportunities on the feet.

Leg 2: Muhammad Mokaev Moneyline (-850)

Mokaev is one of the young prospects from the UK fighting on this card, and he is entertaining to watch. He is 22 years old and has a 9-0 record, with three victories in the UFC. His opponent, Jafel Filho, is making his UFC debut after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. Filho draws a difficult matchup for his debut but deserves credit for accepting the fight against Mokaev, the boogeyman in the flyweight division that nobody wants to fight.

Mokaev averages 8.88 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has submitted two of his three UFC opponents. He is dominant on the mat and controlling position. He gained 10 minutes of control time off six takedowns in his last fight and landed 119 of 130 total strikes. Filho does not have many stats available but was controlled for over two minutes in his previous bout despite stuffing his opponent’s takedown. Mokaev should win easily against Filho on Saturday and potentially move into the top 10 of the flyweight division.

Leg 3: Kamaru Usman Moneyline (-240)

Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman will fight for the third time this weekend. Both men have a win against each other, but Usman has won more rounds against Edwards. Kamaru was ahead 39-37 on all three scorecards before getting knocked out in the final round of their previous matchup. The altitude at Salt Lake City certainly played a role in that fight, but Edwards still managed to land a spectacular head kick despite being more tired than usual. Edwards should be more competitive in this fight, but Usman will be more motivated and prepared.

Edwards will likely have to beat Usman at his own game this weekend. He landed a takedown in the first round of the last fight but was controlled heavily by Usman in the next three rounds. Usman landed 189 total strikes compared to 64 for Edwards. He accumulated over 10 minutes of control time over Edwards, which will be the deciding factor this weekend. Edwards needs to be in control to win this fight, and he will have trouble doing that for five rounds. Usman should win via decision despite Edwards being in front of his home crowd. As Edwards showed last time, anything can happen, but Usman has a safer path to victory. 

Parlay Odds: +148 

DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting one unit or less is the best way to attack it. The PPV main event starts at 10 p.m. EST on ESPN+.

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