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UFC 287: Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal Betting Guide (2023)

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The UFC heads to South Beach this weekend, where UFC 287’s main event features a rematch for the Middleweight Title between (C) Alex Pereira and No. 1 Israel Adesanya. But first, we have a banger in the Welterweight division between No. 5 Gilbert Burns and No. 11 Jorge Masvidal. Masvidal, the self-proclaimed King of Miami, will need every edge that he can get as the oddsmakers see his opponent as nearly a -500 betting favorite. 

Let’s dive deeper into each fighter’s current form, break down their tendencies and get a best bet locked in for the co-main event. 

UFC 287: Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal Betting Guide (2023)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Gilbert Burns (21-5-0) 

Last Five Fights (W-L-W-L-W)

Gilbert “Durinho” Burns has alternated wins and losses over his last five fights, with the two setbacks coming against world-class competition. First, it was a third-round knockout at the hands of Kamaru Usman in February 2021. More recently, Burns dropped an absolute war with Khamzat Chimaev in unanimous decision fashion. The Brazilian-born brawler bounced back in January, submitting Neil Magny in the first round with an arm triangle. Burns secured an early takedown before finding a successful submission on his first attempt. 

Burns’ grappling game is one of the best in the division, where he’s landing 2.03 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing at a 35% clip. It’s noteworthy that Burns is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. As for his striking numbers, the 36-year-old is averaging 3.42 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.17 strikes. 

Betting Profile: Jorge Masvidal (35-16-0) 

Last Five Fights (W-W-L-L-L)

Jorge Masvidal has had a rough run over the last four years, fighting just three times and losing all three affairs. However, similar to Burns, the losses were against top talent in Usman (x2) and Colby Covington most recently. Covington put on a takedown clinic in the March 2022 bout, landing six takedowns and amassing 16:14 of control time. Considering how ferocious Burns’ wrestling is, that’ll be a point of emphasis. You have to return to November 2019 to find Masvidal’s latest victory, a third-round knockout against Nate Diaz. “Gambred” outstruck his opponent 112-43 that night before the fight was called after 15 minutes due to doctor’s stoppage. 

The 38-year-old American shouldn’t be taken lightly, considering he’s a lifelong fighter, registering 51 professional fights. He can do a bit of everything, but his wrestling numbers stick out statistically. Masvidal’s landing 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 59% clip while successfully defending 74% of opposing attempts. In terms of striking, the veteran is landing 4.11 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.06 strikes. 

Bottom Line

This fight seems like a crossroads in the career of Masvidal. With pending legal issues on the horizon combined with a three-fight losing streak, it feels like the storied career of Masival may be coming to an end soon. The sportsbooks see the American as a +360 betting underdog, while Gilbert Burns comes back at -450 to get his hand raised.

I have to agree with the oddsmakers here and say that Masvidal is likely in for a long night at the office. But I think Gambred will have enough in him to last the full 15 minutes, so I’ll take Gilbert Burns to win by decision at +165.

Both of these brawlers are more than battle-tested at this point in their respective careers.  However, I feel that Burns has been more productive in his recent losses than Masvidal. While Burns lost the fight to Chimaev last year, it was far from one-sided. Burns actually outstruck Chimaev 119-108 over three rounds, but it wasn’t enough to get it done when stacked against the two takedowns of Chimaev. 

The area of concern here for Masvidal is his takedown defense. He has an incredible takedown defense rate of 74%, but he’s been outscored 13-0 in the takedown department over his three-fight losing streak. Look for Burns, a third-degree BJJ black belt, to try and take this fight to the canvas. Masvidal may be able to fend off several of the attempts, but I think Burns gets to him eventually and racks up ground control time. If this bout sees a majority of the time being spent on the floor, we shouldn’t be in for a lot of heavy knockout blows being thrown.

Ultimately, I like for Burns to get his hand raised, but I expect Masvidal to last the full 15 minutes in front of his home crowd in Miami. 

Pick: Gilbert Burns to Win by Decision (+165)

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Johnny is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his free UFC picks newsletter and follow him @JohnnyCovers.