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UFC 287 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2023)

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UFC 287 gets underway this Saturday at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. This card features an incredibly deep lineup with an epic title fight set to take place in the main event.

Below, I walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are 0.5 units each, or 0.5% of your betting bankroll.

Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.

UFC 287 Best Longshot Bets

Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook

Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

On the main card, there is an exciting welterweight bout set to take place between Kevin Holland and Santiago Ponzinibbio. Neither of these welterweights comes into this scrap in particularly good form.

Kevin Holland is coming off two straight losses, both of which came inside the distance. Meanwhile, Santiago Ponzinibbio is just 1-2 over his last three bouts with two split-decision losses and one knockout win.

Those two losses could have easily gone either direction, which is impressive considering they came at the hands of Michel Pereira and Geoff Neal.  Pereira is the current No. 15 ranked welterweight while Neal is No. 8, the latter of which gave potential (in my opinion, likely) future champion Shavkat Rakhmonov a good amount of trouble at UFC 285.

With a three-inch height and eight-inch reach disadvantage, Ponzinibbio will almost surely attempt to bring this fight to the mat. In camp, it is likely that Ponzibbio and his team looked at Khamzat’s victory at UFC 279 as a blueprint for how to quickly dispose of Holland on the mat.

In that scrap, Chimaev landed two of five takedowns within the first two minutes of the fight before locking in a D’Arce Choke and winning via first-round submission. Ponzinibbio is obviously nowhere near Chimaev’s level, but he is still a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu that is more than capable of dominating a fight on the mat. 

Six of Ponzinibbio’s 29 professional wins have come via submission. With that in mind, he also possesses a ton of power, evidenced by his 16 knockouts over that same stretch. 

While I think his grappling and submission game is a far more likely avenue to victory against the bigger Holland, I also would not be shocked if Ponzinibbio is able to catch him. However, with his inside-the-distance prop only priced around +360, I would rather just back Ponzinibbio’s moneyline that is still paying north of two dollars.

Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio ML (+205) – 0.5 units

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Christian Rodriguez

Kicking off the main card is a bantamweight bout between massive up-and-comer Raul Rosas Jr. and Christian Rodriguez. The 18-year-old blue-chip prospect not only deals with the normal stresses of being a senior in high school, but he also deals with the fact that he is the youngest professional at the top of his respective field.

Undefeated through seven professional fights, Rosas boasts a dominating five first-round victories. Four of those victories came via submission while the other came via knockout.

The UFC wants to continue to build up Rosas, who often trends on social media when he fights due to his dominance and the fact that he is this talented at 18 years old. Knowing this, matchmakers are giving him another opponent whom he should take care of business with in Christian Rodriguez.

There is not meant to be any disrespect towards Rodriguez, who is an impressive 8-1 professionally and 2-1 since joining the UFC. However, there are levels to this game, and Rodriguez has simply not shown the same sort of domination that Rosas has.

Yes, Rodriguez won his last fight with an Anaconda Choke in the first round. However, he was losing the fight up to that point, getting controlled both in the grappling department and on the feet.

Prior to that win, Rodriguez lost via unanimous decision to Jonathan Pearce, a scrap in which Pearce landed six of 10 takedowns while amassing a dominating 11 minutes of control time. The problem for Rodriguez is that there is not a strong avenue to victory for him in this fight.

If he goes to the mat with Rosas then it will likely be over in minutes unless he can pull a submission out of the hat as he did against Joshua Weems. Rodriguez will likely need to stay on his feet, especially considering that he boasts a four-inch reach advantage.

However, he does give up two inches in height and is a below-average striker who sometimes struggles with his accuracy. Rosas should be able to compete on the feet with Rodriguez, and if it goes to the mat, well, good luck.

Bet Bet: Raul Rosas Jr. in Round 1 (+320) – 0.5 units

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.