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UFC 288 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo

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UFC 288 will get underway this Saturday at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. While this is certainly not the deepest PPV lineup to grace our televisions, we have a compelling main event.

The bantamweight title is on the line as Aljamain Sterling looks to defend the belt against future Hall-of-Famer Henry Cejudo. The fight has hovered around a pick ’em since odds opened.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this bantamweight title fight. The play below is one unit, or 1% of your betting bankroll.

UFC 288 Best Bet for Sterling vs. Cejudo

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Betting Profile: Aljamain Sterling (22-3 Overall / 14-3 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Aljamain Sterling looks to defend the belt for a third time after beating Petr Yan in the rematch and TJ Dillashaw in his latest bout. Currently riding an eight-fight win streak, Sterling has established himself as the No. 6 pound-for-pound fighter on the planet.

Sterling is a tremendously balanced mixed martial artist, although his grappling is what sets him apart from the other elite fighters in the division. Across his eight-fight win streak, he has two wins via submission, one win via knockout, four wins via decision, and one win via DQ.

A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Matt Serra and former NCAA D3 wrestler, Sterling has relied heavily on his grappling to propel himself into superstar status. Speaking of Serra, he returns to Sterling’s corner for the first time since UFC 250.

For this fight, that corner will consist of Serra, Ray Longo, Merab Dvalishvili, and Al Iaquinta. Not only is that an absurdly loaded group of coaches, but that corner almost ensures that Cejudo will wear Sterling like a backpack in this fight.

Betting Profile: Henry Cejudo (16-2 Overall / 10-2 UFC)

Last Five Fights: (W-W-W-W-W)

One of the most prolific and accomplished combat athletes of all time, Henry Cejudo returns to the octagon for the first time since his 2020 victory over Dominick Cruz. Say what you will about Cejudo, and there is a lot one could say, but he is without a doubt one of the most intelligent fighters on the planet.

His intelligence is Cejudo’s main avenue to victory in this fight, but I am not convinced that will be enough. First of all, Sterling is also a very intelligent fighter and he has one of the better corners I have ever seen backing him in this scrap.

Cejudo’s size disparity is also a cause for concern, measuring three-inches shorter in height and seven-inches shorter in reach against the much bigger Sterling. Additionally, Sterling’s activity is more promising considering he has won three title fights between now and the last time Cejudo made the walk to the octagon.

Bottom Line

A former two-division champ, there is no doubt that Cejudo is one of the most accomplished fighters in the history of the UFC. Add to the fact that his intelligence matches (surpasses, actually) his skill in the octagon, it would not shock me at all if he is able to return to the octagon and reclaim the title.

Many Cejudo backers will also point to Jon Jones’ historic return to the octagon this year when he defeated Cyril Gane within minutes without even absorbing a strike. While Cejudo’s legacy is somewhat comparable to Jones’ (a stretch, but two guaranteed Hall-of-Famers), these circumstances are much different.

It is not like Jones went in and beat Francis Ngannou in his first bout, he faced a competent but non-title-holding Gane that is probably not even the strongest contender in the heavyweight division. Meanwhile, Cejudo is immediately facing one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet and the best that the bantamweight division has to offer.

Sterling’s size should help in the grappling department, and I think he will look to wear Cejudo down with constant takedowns and control time en route to a decision victory.

Best Bet: Aljamain Sterling ML (-105 via DraftKings)

Best of luck!


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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.