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UFC 288 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns

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The UFC packs its bags this weekend and heads to Newark, New Jersey, where the promotion puts on UFC 288. All fights lead to the Bantamweight Championship of the World as Aljamain Sterling (C) looks to defend his belt against former double-champion Henry Cejudo. 

But first, we have a massive Welterweight clash between Belal Muhammad (#4) and Gilbert Burns (#5) in the co-main event. With how jam-packed the top of the division is, this five-round bout has plenty of future implications. Let’s dive into each fighter’s recent form, break down their styles, and lock in a best bet for the co-main event.

UFC 288: Bilal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns Best Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Betting Profile: Belal Muhammad (22-3-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights (WWWWNC)

Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad is a perfect 8-0 the last nine times that he’s stepped into the octagon, with the outlier being a no-contest bout against current champion Leon Edwards back in March 2021. Since Muhammad was on the wrong side of the fight-ending eye poke to the champ, he has rattled off another four victories, topping Demian Maia (U-DEC), Stephen Thompson (U-DEC), Vincente Luque (U-DEC), and Sean Brady (KO). He’s been sharp in all aspects of the fight game over the eight-fight win streak, out-striking his opponents in all but one fight while winning the takedown battles a combined 19-2. 

The elite wrestling should come as no surprise at this point as Muhammad is averaging 2.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing at a 35% clip. He boasts a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is defending 92% of opposing takedown attempts. In the striking department, the 34-year-old is landing 4.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.68 strikes. 

Betting Profile: Gilbert Burns (22-5-0)

Last Five Fights (WWLWL)

It’ll be a quick turnaround for Gilbert Burns, who fought less than a month ago at UFC 287 in Miami, Florida. The fifth-ranked contender took care of business against the retiring Jorge Masivdal, edging him out in a unanimous decision over 15 minutes. Burns landed four takedowns and established 5:41 worth of ground control time while out-striking Masvidal 42-39. It was Burns’ second consecutive win after he submitted Neil Magny (Arm Triangle) in January of this year. 

It’s no surprise that the 36-year-old is so active at this stage of his career as he tries to climb up the rankings for another title shot. For that to happen, he’ll need to be sharp in the grappling department, which he typically is. Burns is landing 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 37% rate while defending 47% of the opposition’s attempts. In terms of striking, he’s issuing a modest 3.38 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.13 strikes. 

Bottom Line

This is going to be an awesome fight, and in my opinion, it’s the biggest fight on the card barring the main event. The Welterweight division is a logjam with Edwards, Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington, Khamzat Chimaev, and these two brawlers. It makes the implications of this bout astronomical as the loser will have a long climb back into contention for a title shot. 

The oddsmakers see this as a tight one as DraftKings Sportsbook is offering Burns as a slight -125 betting favorite. Muhammad comes back at +105 to get his hand raised on Saturday night.

I’m riding with Muhammad to win this fight outright. The fourth-ranked contender continues to surprise people as he works his way up the Welterweight rankings. Time and time again his wrestling is called into question and he answers the bells every time. We should see a ton of skilled grappling in this one, but my mind keeps coming back to the fact that Muhammad owns a 92% takedown defense rate. If he’s able to neutralize Burns’ takedown efforts, he’ll have a massive edge and should be able to out-strike him on his feet. Let’s ride with Belal Muhammad to win on Saturday night. 

Pick: Belal Muhammad Moneyline (+105)

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