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UFC 288 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Charles Jourdain vs. Kron Gracie

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This might be one of the most compelling matchups on the main card at UFC 288.

Kron Gracie is a polarizing fighter with an immense amount of talent and questionable tactics. In his last fight against Cub Swanson, he decided to strike for a full three rounds, which led to one of the fights of the year and a performance bonus.

It has been roughly 3.5 years since that fight, and he returns. His ground skills are phenomenal and second to none in the featherweight division, but the real question is whether or not he actually wants to take the fight there.

Charles Jourdain isn’t a heavy hitter like Swanson was, but he is a more than capable veteran. Our sample size for Gracie is very small, so we cannot look too much into it with confidence, but we can look at Jourdain’s last three fights and see how he measures up from the advanced statistics side.

Let’s dive in.

UFC 288 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Charles Jourdain vs. Kron Gracie

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.

Charles Jourdain

  • Dist Acc Off: 44.2%
  • Dist Att/Min: 14.10
  • Dist Def: 58%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs in 178 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 11.07%
  • Control % Def: 25.55%

Jourdain is pretty average across the board from an advanced statistics perspective. He fights at a decent pace, which can make the difference in close rounds. One glaring issue is his 25.55% control defense. This is a pretty obvious take, but if it gets to the ground, Gracie could dominate and end the fight there.

Bottom Line

I am going with Gracie (+150). He is the more talented fighter with a more direct path to victory. +150 gives us a value that a specialist-type fighter normally wouldn’t get.

Pick: Kron Gracie (+150)

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