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UFC 288 Sterling vs. Cejudo: Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

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UFC 288 provides us with one of the most stacked cards of the year and numerous intriguing matchups. We have the return of numerous fighters from several years of inactivity and several fighters turning around on short notice. Let’s take a look at our favorite prop bets and angles to attack.

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport.

Let’s look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

UFC 288 Sterling vs. Cejudo: Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

Jessica Andrade (-190) vs. Xiaonan Yan (+160)

Xiaonan Yan

  • Dist Acc Off: 49.01%
  • Dist Att/Min: 12.31
  • Dist Def: 65%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 150 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 11.9 %
  • Control % Def: 36.1%

Jessica Andrade

  • Dist Acc Off: 54.6%
  • Dist Att/Min: 22.66
  • Dist Def: 65%
  • KD%: .3% (1 KD out of 299 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 4.4%
  • Control % Def: 4.5%

Bottom Line

The two biggest outliers in this fight are Xiaonan Yan’s control % def of 36.1% and Jessica Andrade’s Dist Att/Min of 22.66. Andrade has decided to stand and trade over her last thre fights. Her incredible breakneck pace is often unmatched. Andrade will overwhelm Yan with volume, and if the fight makes it to the ground, it could be an incredibly short night. Andrade by TKO +225 has immense value and is my pick.

Pick: Jessica Andrade t0 Win by (+225)

Aljamain Sterling (-110) vs. Henry Cejudo (-110)

Aljamain Sterling

  • Dist Acc Off: 42.9%
  • Dist Att/Min: 13.31
  • Dist Def: 45%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 138 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 35.7%
  • Control % Def: 19.01%

Henry Cejudo

  • Dist Acc Off: 38.9%
  • Dist Att/Min: 7.38
  • Dist Def: 52%
  • KD%: .8% (1 KD out of 308 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 15.1%
  • Control % Def: 1.2%

Bottom Line

This is a tough matchup to dissect, but I feel like there is a path to victory that we can exploit. That angle is Aljamain Sterling’s horrendous distance defense of 45%. I do not believe Sterling will be able to control Henry Cejudo on the ground, as evidenced by Cejudos 1.2% control defense. If this fight goes the distance over five rounds, Cejudo can test Sterling’s cardio and chin. Cejudo at +350 by KO is the play. Sterling’s lack of ground control will wear him out, and his lack of defense will be his undoing.

Pick: Henry Cejudo to Win by TKO (+350)

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