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UFC 289 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush

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It’s a massive weekend in Canada as the RBC Canadian Open gets underway in Toronto, Ont. and the UFC makes its way to Vancouver, B.C., for a numbered event. It’s UFC 289, and all roads lead to a Women’s Bantamweight Championship fight between Amanda Nunes (C) and Irene Aldana (No. 5). 

We have a stacked card throughout, including the co-main event between Charles Oliveira (No. 1) and Beneil Dariush (No. 5). Let’s check out each fighter’s current form and dive into how I’m betting this Lightweight bout. 

UFC 289 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Charles Oliveira (33-9-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights (L-W-W-W-W)

Charles “Do Bronxs” Oliveira saw his 11-fight win streak snapped the last time he stepped into the octagon, losing a title fight for the vacated belt to Islam Makhachev in October. The former champion looked like a shell of the man we’ve seen dominate the Lightweight division over the past two years. But, perhaps the rising Makhachev caught him on a bad night. And in Oliveria’s defense, the Russian-born brawler has developed into a beast atop the weight class. Makhachev landed a pair of takedowns on him and ultimately locked in an arm triangle, submitting Oliveira 3:16 into the second round.

In terms of style, Oliveira is basically a threat in every department of the fight game. He boasts a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and 21 of his 33 professional victories have come via submission. The Brazilian packs a powerful punch as well, where he averages 3.48 significant strikes per minute. Nine of his 33 wins are by knockout. As for his wrestling statistics, Do Bronxs is landing 2.37 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 40% clip while defending 55% of opposing attempts. 

Betting Profile: Beneil Dariush (22-4-1)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

The 34-year-old Beneil Dariush seems to just be coming into his prime, as he’s now rattled off eight consecutive wins in the UFC. We’ve seen him run through some stiff competition, from up-and-comers like Drew Dober to established brawlers like Tony Ferguson. Most recently, it was a 15-minute clash between Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot on the same October night that Oliveira lost his championship bout. The Iranian-born American was taken down four times for 2:07 of ground control but ultimately prevailed by unanimous decision. Dariush outstruck his opponent 59-33 over the three rounds of action. 

It was Dariush’s third consecutive decision victory, but it’s worth noting that the prior four wins were split between submissions and knockouts. So, similar to Oliveira, Dariush can do a little bit of everything in the octagon. He’s currently a second-degree black belt in BJJ and also has a black belt in Muay Thai. Dariush’s grappling is a strong point, as he’s defending 80% of opposing takedown attempts while also landing 1.95 per 15 minutes (34%). In terms of striking, he’s issuing 3.81 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.55 strikes. 

Bottom Line

While it’s always exciting to watch the GOAT Amanda Nunes step into the cage, I’m most looking forward to this Lightweight bout between top contenders Oliveira and Dariush. It seems likely that the winner will go on to challenge Makhachev for the divisional strap. The oddsmakers believe it’ll be a tight fight as they see Dariush as a -145 favorite while Oliveira returns at +125. 

I’m taking a shot with the Brazilian in this tilt with the plus-money payout. While Dariush is red-hot and riding an eight-fight win streak, he’s not nearly as battle-tested as Oliveria. The former champion’s loss to Makhachev is tough to weigh here because it appears that the Russian is just that dominant of a fighter.

Meanwhile, for Dariush to be taken to a decision against the declining Ferguson doesn’t inspire much confidence – especially when you have to lay -145 juice in this fight. Also, Dariush was 15/19 on takedown defense against Gamrot last time out, but he still allowed four takedowns. If Oliveira can take this fight to the canvas and rack up control time and submission attempts, he’ll get his hand raised. 

Ultimately, I’m high on Dariush as a whole, but he still has some refinement to do before beating an upper-echelon fighter like Do Bronxs. Let’s take a flier on Oliveira at +125. 

Pick: Charles Oliveira Moneyline (+125)

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